Georgia Tech +4.5 at Miami-
Two weeks in a row of Georgia Tech on Thursday night, and I'm sticking with the Ramblin Wreck despite how they absolutely tore my fucking heart out last week blowing that 24-0 lead. This is a very intriguing matchup with a lot of different angles to look at on both sides, so let's get to it:
Point: Georgia Tech absolutely beat the shit out of Miami on Thursday night last year, rushing 56 times for 472 yards and only throwing 6 times; they should do it again- Miami is basically the same team as last year, and they got absolutely shredded by GT last year. I can't recall a much more dominating performance than the show the Tech runners and O-line put on last year. By this line of thinking, getting points with GT, even if they're now on the road, is an absolute gift.
Counter-Point: There is no fucking way Georgia Tech does that again this year- This is a fair point; I don't see them rushing for 472 yards. But what about 300 yards? That seems doable, and would still give Miami quite the headache. Possibly the bigger issue is what the hell happens if at some point, Josh Nesbitt has to make a play through the air for Tech? He was absolutely dreadful against Clemson last week (3 for 14, 2 INTs), and with the big play ability Miami's offense showed in its opener against Florida State, there is a real possibility this turns into a shootout.
Point: Miami last year was a young, talented team that is still talented but has now matured and will handle the flexbone better- This is a fair point; add in that they are playing at home on a Thursday night with what is likely to be a wild crowd, and Miami's youngsters should feed off that emotion. However, while there is undoubtedly a lot of talent on this team, I think it's very easy to counter whether or not they've matured.
Counter-Point: It's only their second game of the year; how much could they have matured already?- I guess you could say their big win over rival FSU showed "maturity," but their play didn't look all that poised to me but looked more like they got by just on talent. They played very loose against Florida State, had trouble with turnovers, and really should have lost the game if Brandon Fortson makes that catch on the last play. There is no doubt Miami will be better prepared to face the flexbone this time around, but do they have the personnel to stop it? They were shredded by a Florida State offense that managed a whopping 19 points against Jacksonville State last week, and if I were Miami I wouldn't want my defense thinking too much about where the Tech players are going and what they are doing, but I'd rather just want them to read and react. Their defense didn't show much improvement or maturity against FSU over last year's defense that GT just embarassed, so I think it's a tall order to ask them to mature so soon and stop an offense that so thoroughly dominated them last year. Also on the maturity front, Miami could be in for a letdown after that huge win, although working against that for GT is that Miami has had 10 days off since then, so a letdown really shouldn't be much of a concern.
Point: Tech's secondary got lit up by a completely untested QB last week; Jacory Harris is going to have a field day- Clemson threw the ball all over GT in their comeback last week, while Miami's offense, and specifically Jacory Harris, showed some big play potential against FSU. If GT struggled with Clemson's athletes, just wait til they get a load of Harris, Graig Cooper, and Travis Benjamin.
Counter-Point: Harris was still mistake prone against FSU, and he faced absolutely no pass rush- Even without Michael Johnson this year, there is absolutely no way GT doesn't put more pressure on Harris than the miserable effort FSU's defensive front showed. Also, while it wasn't their defense taking advantage of mistakes last week (the punt return TD, fake field goal TD), Paul Johnson's teams have a reputation for being extraordinarily opportunistic, and I see Harris giving them some chances to make some big plays defensively.
Summary- I look for this to be a wild, entertaining, back and forth game, but I think ultimately Miami will make too many mistakes and won't be able to slow down Tech's rushing attack enough to win.
Georgia Tech 37, Miami 31
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