Lock It Up: Weekend Picks

Last night? Yea, we're not going to be talking about that. Just know that I looked like that guy in the picture for about 2 hours straight last night. Let's move on to the weekend...

E. Carolina + 7.5 at N. Carolina- When you need a safety in the last two minutes to beat UConn, let's just say that I'm less than impressed with you.

North Carolina 24, E. Carolina 20

UCLA -12.5 vs. Kansas State- Bill Snyder has to be thinking right now, "I came back for this???" First, they barely hold off UMass at home, then they go on the road and lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That actually happened. And they're only getting 12.5 points at a decent UCLA team who just won at Tennessee. This one's going to get ugly.
UCLA 38, Kansas State 10

Florida -29.5 vs. Tennessee- Urban Meyer runs up the score on The Citadel; what do you think he's going to do to big mouth Lane Kiffin who called him out in the offseason?
Florida 62, Tennessee 7

Michigan State +10 at Notre Dame- Yea, I know Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week, but I think 10's too many here. Central Michigan is the best of the directional Michigans, and I'm guessing MSU might have looked past Central Michigan a bit to this game. Either way, I think the Spartans defense is good enough to keep this close.
Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 21

West Virginia +7.5 at Auburn- This line opened at 4, so the betting public has been absolutely hammering Auburn here. As for me, I'm on the record as saying I think both of these teams are pretty good, but I'm also I think the only person in the country on the West Virginia bandwagon. For as great as Pat White was, he made them very one dimensional offensively. Now, they can still run the ball well with Noel Devine, but Jarrett Brown also gives them a much better passer and someone who can get the ball to Jock Sanders out in open space. Need proof of that? Did you see Pat White over throw a wide open Ted Ginn by 15 yards last week? That happened all the time at West Virginia.

Also, look at their schedule after this game: they get a week off, then get Colorado at home on a Thursday night (who is 0-2 with losses to Colorado State and Toledo. Insert joke here), at Syracuse, vs. Marshall, vs. UConn, at South Florida, vs. Louisville, at Cinci, vs. Pitt, at Rutgers. They win this week and they're looking at cruising to 7-0 before going to South Florida; this may be the last chance to get in on West Virginia before everyone else realizes how good they are (or at least how good I think they are). This team is a real sleeper to go to the BCS title game if they get past Auburn here, and at the very least, I think this spread is much too high. Oh, and there's also the added advantage that Bill Stewart is facing a coach who definitely isn't better than him for once.

West Virginia 27, Auburn 24

California -13.5 at Minnesota- Minnesota stinks. Sure, they're 2-0, but they should've lost to Syracuse, and a 20-13 win over Air Force at home does not impress me. Meanwhile, Jahvid Best has been eating babies and absolutely dismantling Maryland and Eastern Washington-- I know, they aren't exactly USC and Florida, but this team has looked ridiculous. Plus, I don't think Minnesota is much of a step up from those two anyway.

California 45, Minnesota 17

Texas -17.5 vs. Texas Tech- You think Texas might be up for this game after what Tech did to them last year? Also, historically Mike Leach's teams can compete against the big boys in Lubbock, but when they go on the road, they get stomped (for a recent example of this, see what happened to them at Oklahoma last year, or even what happened against Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl). And to make things worse, Tech doesn't have half the talent they had last year. I think this one gets ugly early and Texas never takes its foot off the gas

Texas 49, Texas Tech 21.

(Update: somehow forgot to include these two games:)
Oregon State +1 vs. Cincinnati- Cinci has looked impressive so far, completely eviscerating Rutgers and, for what it's worth (probably not much) SE Missouri State, while Oregon State barely held on at UNLV last week. Tony Pike has looked mighty impressive so far, but I want to see Cinci's d-- which lost a lot of talent from last year-- perform against a real offense. Sean Canfield will easily be the best QB they've seen so far this year, and Quiz and James Rodgers will be the best skill position players they've seen too. This should be one of the best games of the weekend, and I'll take Oregon State with the home field advantage.
Oregon State 28, Cincinnati 24

Virginia Tech -5 vs. Nebraska- This line opened curiously low at 2.5, and I'm not ready to take Nebraska and an inexperienced QB on the road against perennial defensive powerhouse Virginia Tech. Tyrod Taylor hasn't really shown any improvement as a QB so far this year, but freshmen RBs Ryan Williams and David Wilson have shown that their running game didn't die with the injury to Darren Evans. Remember, Taylor was also the QB for Tech last year when they dropped 35 on the Huskers in Lincoln. I don't think Nebraska can score enough to keep this one close.

Virginia Tech 30, Nebraska 17

NFL PICKS:
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona, simply because it's a 1 o'clock game, and Arizona sucks, and Dallas -3 vs. NY Giants, because I don't think the Giants are that good.

Thursday Night Lock it Up: GT-Miami

Georgia Tech +4.5 at Miami-
Two weeks in a row of Georgia Tech on Thursday night, and I'm sticking with the Ramblin Wreck despite how they absolutely tore my fucking heart out last week blowing that 24-0 lead. This is a very intriguing matchup with a lot of different angles to look at on both sides, so let's get to it:

Point: Georgia Tech absolutely beat the shit out of Miami on Thursday night last year, rushing 56 times for 472 yards and only throwing 6 times; they should do it again- Miami is basically the same team as last year, and they got absolutely shredded by GT last year. I can't recall a much more dominating performance than the show the Tech runners and O-line put on last year. By this line of thinking, getting points with GT, even if they're now on the road, is an absolute gift.

Counter-Point: There is no fucking way Georgia Tech does that again this year- This is a fair point; I don't see them rushing for 472 yards. But what about 300 yards? That seems doable, and would still give Miami quite the headache. Possibly the bigger issue is what the hell happens if at some point, Josh Nesbitt has to make a play through the air for Tech? He was absolutely dreadful against Clemson last week (3 for 14, 2 INTs), and with the big play ability Miami's offense showed in its opener against Florida State, there is a real possibility this turns into a shootout.

Point: Miami last year was a young, talented team that is still talented but has now matured and will handle the flexbone better- This is a fair point; add in that they are playing at home on a Thursday night with what is likely to be a wild crowd, and Miami's youngsters should feed off that emotion. However, while there is undoubtedly a lot of talent on this team, I think it's very easy to counter whether or not they've matured.

Counter-Point: It's only their second game of the year; how much could they have matured already?- I guess you could say their big win over rival FSU showed "maturity," but their play didn't look all that poised to me but looked more like they got by just on talent. They played very loose against Florida State, had trouble with turnovers, and really should have lost the game if Brandon Fortson makes that catch on the last play. There is no doubt Miami will be better prepared to face the flexbone this time around, but do they have the personnel to stop it? They were shredded by a Florida State offense that managed a whopping 19 points against Jacksonville State last week, and if I were Miami I wouldn't want my defense thinking too much about where the Tech players are going and what they are doing, but I'd rather just want them to read and react. Their defense didn't show much improvement or maturity against FSU over last year's defense that GT just embarassed, so I think it's a tall order to ask them to mature so soon and stop an offense that so thoroughly dominated them last year. Also on the maturity front, Miami could be in for a letdown after that huge win, although working against that for GT is that Miami has had 10 days off since then, so a letdown really shouldn't be much of a concern.

Point: Tech's secondary got lit up by a completely untested QB last week; Jacory Harris is going to have a field day- Clemson threw the ball all over GT in their comeback last week, while Miami's offense, and specifically Jacory Harris, showed some big play potential against FSU. If GT struggled with Clemson's athletes, just wait til they get a load of Harris, Graig Cooper, and Travis Benjamin.

Counter-Point: Harris was still mistake prone against FSU, and he faced absolutely no pass rush- Even without Michael Johnson this year, there is absolutely no way GT doesn't put more pressure on Harris than the miserable effort FSU's defensive front showed. Also, while it wasn't their defense taking advantage of mistakes last week (the punt return TD, fake field goal TD), Paul Johnson's teams have a reputation for being extraordinarily opportunistic, and I see Harris giving them some chances to make some big plays defensively.

Summary- I look for this to be a wild, entertaining, back and forth game, but I think ultimately Miami will make too many mistakes and won't be able to slow down Tech's rushing attack enough to win.
Georgia Tech 37, Miami 31

Lock it up: Weekend Picks

Before we get to this weekend's picks, I would just like to point out that I am in no rational position to discuss the events of last night. I basically hit the nail on the head of what was going to happen in the Pitt-Ten game but was too much of a pussy to bet it, and the team I actually did bet on (Georgia Tech) somehow blew a 24-0 lead and won without covering. Fuck me.

College Picks:

UNC -4 at UConn- This is a good litmus test for UNC; they have a lot of talent-- most likely a good amount more than UConn-- but they are still going on the road to play against a decent BCS conference team. UConn struggled to get past Ohio last week, while UNC has ACC title aspirations this season, especially considering how dreadful the ACC performed last weekend. UConn lost a lot of talent from last year's team (notably, Donald Brown), and I think UNC rolls here.

UNC 34, UConn 20

West Virginia -6.5 vs. East Carolina- I very nearly bet on West Virginia to win the BCS title this year as a longshot bet at 50-1; they still have a good amount of talent from Rodriguez's days, including top notch RB Noel Devine. There's also a revenge factor at play here this week as West Virginia looks to avenge last year's embarassing loss at ECU. ECU is a pretty decent team themselves, but this is really more a pro West Virginia pick than anything anti-ECU. The only thing that really has me scared about this pick is the coaching matchup-- Skip Holtz can coach circles around Bill Stewart. Need proof? See the following from Bill Stewart's twitter page:

West Virginia 27, East Carolina 17


Mississippi State +14 at Auburn- I actually think Auburn's going to be decent this year, but I just can't shake the visual image of what happened the last time these two squared off:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL-mNqDeJpM

Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2

South Carolina/Georgia under 38- covered in yesterday's links post. Basically, these two teams never score a lot against each other, and judging by how anemic their offenses looked last week, this year will be no different. Hell, Georgia only managed 14 points against South Carolina last year with Stafford, Moreno, and Massoquoi all on board; I shudder to think what will happen this year. My only fear with this under is Stephen Garcia's involvement; he could have one of his craptastic 5 turnover, 2 of which go back for TDs games. I don't see that happening though; I also like South Carolina with the 7 points here, although I probably won't touch it.
Georgia 16, South Carolina 13

Houston +15 at Oklahoma State
I love Oklahoma State. I love Mike Gundy, Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, and Dez Bryant. However, this has letdown game written all over it. Plus, Houston's got a pretty prolific offense, and I think holding Georgia to 10 points last week was more about Georgia's offense being really, really bad than anything positive Oklahoma State's defense did. Houston's a pretty good football team, and if Oklahoma State isn't careful they could lose this game. I don't think they will, but I also don't think Oklahoma State's D will stop Houston enough to cover.
Oklahoma State 45, Houston 35

Buffalo +10.5 vs. Pittsburgh- This line seems wayyyyyyyyy too high, and I think Buffalo could win this outright. They will quite possibly have the best player on the field this game-- WR Naaman Roosevelt-- and people are far too high on Pittsburgh, especially considering Dave Wannstedt is still their coach. It's also interesting to note that Buffalo was getting 8.5 at freaking UTEP last week and they went into El Paso and won outright, so it's quite possible that Vegas just does not have a good read on this team. Finally, I'll take Turner Gill as my coach (especially at home) over freaking Wannstedt any day of the week.
Buffalo 34, Pittsburgh 31

TCU -11 at Virginia- Yup, I'm taking a Mountain West team, laying double digit points, on the road, at an ACC team. Why you ask? Virginia lost at home to freaking William and Mary last week. Al Groh-- Dead Man Walking.
TCU 41, Virgina 17

Ohio State +7 vs. USC- Hear me out first before you mock me. I know that Ohio State has been spectacularly bad in most of their big out of conference games lately and that they nearly lost to Navy at home last week. However, they gave Texas a hell of a game in the Fiesta Bowl last year-- a game where no one, myself included, thought they had a chance. Also, he is far from perfect, but Jim Tressel is still a very good coach, and I think he's going to make this a grind it out affair. USC is starting a true freshman quarterback on the road, and I highly doubt they are going to open up the playbook and take the training wheels off Barkley. I think USC wants to make sure Barkley doesn't kill them with any big mistakes, make a few decent throws to keep the defense honest, and then just let Joe McKnight go to work. I see this being a relatively low scoring game where every yard and every point is fought for, and that fits right up Jim Tressel's alley. I see this being a field goal game either way. So, at gunpoint, the pick to win is...
USC 20, Ohio State 17.

NFL PICKS:
Only a few here...

Carolina +2.5 vs. Philly- I like the Eagles a lot this year and I love McNabb, but is it just me or do they always seem to start slowly? Carolina's got a tremendous offensive line, and I think they will make this a physical game and pound the ball on them. Look for a big game from DeAngelo Williams.
Carolina 27, Philly 24

Houston -4.5 vs. Jets- I think the Jets are going to stink this year. It's really as simple as that. Oh, and Mark Sanchez? Meet Mario Williams. You're about to find out life as a QB isn't so easy when you're not at USC getting 6 seconds in the pocket every down to find your wide open receivers down the field.
Houston 28, Jets 10

Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis- These teams always seem to play close games, and I don't think Indianapolis is going to be all that good this year.
Indianapolis 23, Jacksonville 21

Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago- I love Green Bay this year; even have a bet on them at 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. Although I felt a lot better about that bet before Bill Simmons picked them to win the Super Bowl.
Green Bay 30, Chicago 24