Why Iverson's Not Done Yet

(ed. note: Yea, I know I said I'd have some NFL thoughts later today, but this Iverson idea just came to me. I'll probably give my NFL thoughts tomorrow. Oh and by the way-- lay the 11 with the Pats tonight. I just saw someone at school wearing a Brian Moorman jersey-- that's really all you need to know about the Bills.)

Rarely has there been a figure in professional sports quite as polarizing as Allen Iverson. As the NBA struggled to find an identity post-MJ, Iverson rose to prominence, and to the old guard, became a symbol of all that was wrong with the NBA. He's a thug. Look at those cornows. Look at those tats. He's a me-first gunner. Yet, to many of the league's younger fans, Iverson became a hero, and it isn't all that hard to see why. He's charismatic, overcame numerous obstacles in his life (some self-imposed, others not), and played the game with heart-on-his-sleeve reckless abandon despite his diminutive 6 foot, 160 pound frame. Despite never being a darling to the advanced stats crowd, he still has a career PER of 21.1, and before last season, he never posted a PER below 18. However, after last year's dreadful experience in Detroit, many in and around the NBA speculated that the demise of AI was imminent, buoyed by the lack of interest in the 34 year old free agent. Last week, Iverson surprised many by signing a one year, 3.5 million dollar deal with the moribund Memphis Grizzlies, a seemingly fitting partnership-- a legend on his last legs signing with a desperate franchise going nowhere and losing both games and money. But here's why I'm not counting out Allen Iverson.

1) It's a no lose situation- This applies from both Memphis' standpoint and Iverson's. For Memphis, the absolute worst case scenario is that Iverson repeats his performance from last year. He could sulk, he could fire up awful shots, he could play little to no defense, and he could impede the growth of the team's young talent (Gay, M. Gasol, Conley, Thabeet). And in that absolute worst case scenario, he's gone after the year at the absolute longest--they could always work out a buy out or just tell him to go home if it's that disastrous. The best case scenario for Memphis? Iverson is great-- he returns to his 07-08 form, he acts as a mentor to the young guys, he provides some interest in Memphis and maybe sells some extra seats. For Iverson, it's a no lose situation simply because nobody else wanted him. He didn't get the final big payday he hoped for, nor is he the missing piece on a championship team, but he's in a situation where he can just go out and play and not be surrounded by all the drama that engulfed him last season. If he goes out and plays hard and well this season, maybe the championship contenders will come calling with a meaningful role for him. And this last scenario is not as far fetched as you might think because...

2) Allen Iverson can still play- To me, the tales of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Last year, in an injury plagued season, playing for a new team in a new role he was not familiar with, surrounded by prima donnas and coached by an overmatched neophyte, yes, Iverson struggled. But take a closer look-- his PER was still over the league average (15.8). And the year before that in Denver? He posted a blistering 20.9 PER. Now, I realize Iverson hasn't done much defensively other than gambling for steals in the past few years-- and to be honest, at this point in his career that is not likely to change-- but I don't see him as being as inefficient a scorer as everyone else does. In fact, in the 07-08 season, he posted a career best true shooting percentage at 56.7%. While I would not expect him to replicate that next year, I don't see his career being on a downward spiral, but rather I think this season Iverson will produce somewhere between his numbers from 08-09 and his numbers from 07-08; Maybe something like a PER around 18 and a TS% of 52-53%. Sure, with Iverson you are always going to get some ill-advised shots, but as long as that does not spread to his teammates, I don't see this negatively impacting the Grizzlies, so long as his usage stays in the mid 20s like it did in Denver, and not into the astronomically high mid 30s peaks he saw it rise to in Philadelphia.

3) The normal rules don't apply to Allen Iverson, and he is just dying for everyone to count him out- Sure, you look at his precipitous decline in production last year, his age, the fact that his game is so dependent on his speed, and the litany of hits he's taken throughout his career, and you think ok, the end is near; almost all 2 guards and players like him see a rapid decline in their early 30s. Me? I'm not buying it. The big if here is IF he can stay healthy, but that's a question that's plagued Iverson his entire career. We've seen him fearlessly drive to the hole, get whacked by a guy 10 inches taller and 100 pounds heavier than him, and bounce back up time and time again. Furthermore, Iverson is proud, and his pride has to have been wounded by the yearlong lambasting he has taken for what went on in Detroit. With a full offseason to work hard, get back in shape, and to head into a fresh new situation, I have a feeling he'll be ready to give it everything he has, even for the lowly Grizzlies. I think last year's sulking had little to do with the Pistons stinking, but more to do with him being upset at being traded early in the season, upset at his new situation, angry at his overmatched coach, and the product of the whiny, entitled culture that guys like Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton fostered in Detroit. What I mean by that is Iverson sulked and underperformed last year not because he was on a bad team, but because of the circus around him. In Memphis, the distractions will be minimized and he'll be on a team of young players looking to play hard and make a name for themselves in the league, and I think we'll see a top notch effort from AI and a return of that passion and fire that initially endeared Iverson to us next season.

The "nobody respects me/nobody believed in me" card is something that is constantly played by athletes now, so much so that it has become practically cliched. Seemingly every athlete or team, whether or not anyone actually did believe in them, uses this for motivation. But the thing is, it seems to work, and there are few athletes that this is truer for than Allen Iverson. Coming out of high school he was too troubled and too much of a risk for a big time college. Nobody believed in him, but he went on to excel for two years at Georgetown. Those same questions plagued him as he entered the draft, along with questions about whether he was unselfish enough to play the point or big enough to play off the ball. Nobody believed in him, and Iverson relished in silencing the doubters. As he ascended to superstardom, nobody thought a team could win with him as their best player; nobody believed in him, but he took a team that started Eric Snow, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, and Tyrone Hill to the NBA finals. And now, at age 34, coming off a disappointing season and following an offseason where nobody wanted him? Nobody believes in him. I'm giving him another chance before counting him out.

The Problem with the Hornets

I can't believe how bad your teammates are either, Chris.

This is something that's been knawing at me for a while, and the link I gave to Sham earlier today had a quote that really underscored what I've felt about the Hornets for a while:

"Peja is still going, although he's not far away from being Postdrag. He owes it all to the pretty tremendous contract that Jeff Bower gave him, one which calls for two more years and $27.6 million for a player with a PER of 12.5 last year. Nice. Their other shocking contract of that offseason - Bobby Jackson - has finally expired, but not before the Hornets traded it for a longer one (Mike James, later Antonio Daniels) just to get a two month Bonzi Wells cameo. They made a "go for it" trade, missed by miles, and are still suffering from the repercussions, having to dump players to avoid the tax. Nasty. It often escapes mention quite how bad Jeff Bower has been in New Orleans. He wasn't even the one who drafted Chris Paul."

When New Orleans got Chris Paul and realized how good he was, they went with what I call the "casual fan" team building model. What is that you ask? It's buying into stupid beliefs that casual fans spout off like "great point guards make everyone around them better," and trying to build their team by just filling in with complementary pieces. I say that is a stupid belief because great PG's don't make everyone around them better; go to basketball-reference or 82games.com and look at the stats for players before they play with a great PG, when they play with one, and after they play with one. Chris Paul has not made James Posey or Mo Pete or Peja or Rasual Butler any better playing with him. Steve Nash did not magically morph Quentin Richardson or Raja Bell or Eddie House or James Jones into better players. People always trot out Marion playing with Nash as the poster child for this theory, but you could even argue that Nash did not make him better considering Marion was pretty damn good before Nash ever got to Phoenix. Sure, I understand that complementary players are needed in team building, but teams like Phoenix and New Orleans thought they could get by without any other playmakers on the perimeter because they had such great PG's, and it hasn't worked (although it almost did for Phoenix, but it also helps when you have Amare and Marion in their primes in the frontcourt, along with one of the best coaches in the league).

This is what New Orleans did; they dumped huge money on an aging and decomposing Peja. The supposed reasoning? "Well, all he'll have to do is stand there and wet open threes on Paul's drive and kicks." They threw the MLE at Mo Pete under the similar thinking of "well, with Chris Paul on board, we don't need a 2 guard who can create, but just one who can stay out of the way, play defense, and hit open jumpers." That same line of reasoning led them to later dump the MLE on an aging James Posey. Unless you have two great players in the front court (like Phoenix when they had Marion and Amare to go with Nash) who can score, you need wing players around your stud PG that can do more than just hit stand still jumpers and play defense.

This even applies to stars that aren't PG's; look at the Cavs and LeBron. For years their team building strategy was to just surround him with guys who can bang open jumpers and do nothing else; guys like Damon Jones, Daniel Gibson, and Donyell Marshall. They were always good (because LeBron was so incredible, and they played really good D), but they were always dreadful on offense and a step short of being a true contender. What happens last year? They go out and get two guards (Mo Williams and Delonte West) that can not only hit that open jumper, but they can also create a little bit of offense for themselves and others. All of a sudden, their offense is great, they win 66 games, and they lose in the conference finals to a Magic team that Cleveland didn't match up well with and because Orlando played out of their minds. Even LeBron needs someone else who can create.

Why has this struck such a nerve with me? Well for starters, I hate to see one of the best PG's of all time in a bad situation. Chris Paul has had two of the best statistical seasons ever for a PG in the past two years, and sadly it looks like New Orleans isn't going anywhere fast because of the black holes they have at the 2 and 3. And secondly, as a Bulls fan, this is very similar to the defense the Bulls and many of their fans have made for letting Ben Gordon go; "well, he was expendable because we have Rose, and he's our creator." Where is it written in stone that you can only have one creator on the perimeter? I understand the need for team balance, but why do all of a sudden people think players like Nash and Deron Williams and Rose and Paul can just do it all on their own on the perimeter? Why have more teams not modeled themselves after the Spurs? Sure, they have one of the greatest PF's of all time, but they also have two damned good guards who can both create for themselves, create for others, and hit jumpshots. When Ginobili was out last year, no one seemed to think that some complementary player could fill in his role because they had Parker and he was their creator and they had Duncan and he was their big. Yet, for Paul, Nash, Kidd, Rose, etc. it's a different standard.

So hang in there CP3; there are those of us out there who know that you're great, who know that you can't do it all, and who know that your GM sucks. And so help me God, if the Bulls start dumping MLE contracts on average swingmen because "Derrick Rose is our creator"...