Lock It Up: Weekend Picks

Last night? Yea, we're not going to be talking about that. Just know that I looked like that guy in the picture for about 2 hours straight last night. Let's move on to the weekend...

E. Carolina + 7.5 at N. Carolina- When you need a safety in the last two minutes to beat UConn, let's just say that I'm less than impressed with you.

North Carolina 24, E. Carolina 20

UCLA -12.5 vs. Kansas State- Bill Snyder has to be thinking right now, "I came back for this???" First, they barely hold off UMass at home, then they go on the road and lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That actually happened. And they're only getting 12.5 points at a decent UCLA team who just won at Tennessee. This one's going to get ugly.
UCLA 38, Kansas State 10

Florida -29.5 vs. Tennessee- Urban Meyer runs up the score on The Citadel; what do you think he's going to do to big mouth Lane Kiffin who called him out in the offseason?
Florida 62, Tennessee 7

Michigan State +10 at Notre Dame- Yea, I know Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week, but I think 10's too many here. Central Michigan is the best of the directional Michigans, and I'm guessing MSU might have looked past Central Michigan a bit to this game. Either way, I think the Spartans defense is good enough to keep this close.
Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 21

West Virginia +7.5 at Auburn- This line opened at 4, so the betting public has been absolutely hammering Auburn here. As for me, I'm on the record as saying I think both of these teams are pretty good, but I'm also I think the only person in the country on the West Virginia bandwagon. For as great as Pat White was, he made them very one dimensional offensively. Now, they can still run the ball well with Noel Devine, but Jarrett Brown also gives them a much better passer and someone who can get the ball to Jock Sanders out in open space. Need proof of that? Did you see Pat White over throw a wide open Ted Ginn by 15 yards last week? That happened all the time at West Virginia.

Also, look at their schedule after this game: they get a week off, then get Colorado at home on a Thursday night (who is 0-2 with losses to Colorado State and Toledo. Insert joke here), at Syracuse, vs. Marshall, vs. UConn, at South Florida, vs. Louisville, at Cinci, vs. Pitt, at Rutgers. They win this week and they're looking at cruising to 7-0 before going to South Florida; this may be the last chance to get in on West Virginia before everyone else realizes how good they are (or at least how good I think they are). This team is a real sleeper to go to the BCS title game if they get past Auburn here, and at the very least, I think this spread is much too high. Oh, and there's also the added advantage that Bill Stewart is facing a coach who definitely isn't better than him for once.

West Virginia 27, Auburn 24

California -13.5 at Minnesota- Minnesota stinks. Sure, they're 2-0, but they should've lost to Syracuse, and a 20-13 win over Air Force at home does not impress me. Meanwhile, Jahvid Best has been eating babies and absolutely dismantling Maryland and Eastern Washington-- I know, they aren't exactly USC and Florida, but this team has looked ridiculous. Plus, I don't think Minnesota is much of a step up from those two anyway.

California 45, Minnesota 17

Texas -17.5 vs. Texas Tech- You think Texas might be up for this game after what Tech did to them last year? Also, historically Mike Leach's teams can compete against the big boys in Lubbock, but when they go on the road, they get stomped (for a recent example of this, see what happened to them at Oklahoma last year, or even what happened against Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl). And to make things worse, Tech doesn't have half the talent they had last year. I think this one gets ugly early and Texas never takes its foot off the gas

Texas 49, Texas Tech 21.

(Update: somehow forgot to include these two games:)
Oregon State +1 vs. Cincinnati- Cinci has looked impressive so far, completely eviscerating Rutgers and, for what it's worth (probably not much) SE Missouri State, while Oregon State barely held on at UNLV last week. Tony Pike has looked mighty impressive so far, but I want to see Cinci's d-- which lost a lot of talent from last year-- perform against a real offense. Sean Canfield will easily be the best QB they've seen so far this year, and Quiz and James Rodgers will be the best skill position players they've seen too. This should be one of the best games of the weekend, and I'll take Oregon State with the home field advantage.
Oregon State 28, Cincinnati 24

Virginia Tech -5 vs. Nebraska- This line opened curiously low at 2.5, and I'm not ready to take Nebraska and an inexperienced QB on the road against perennial defensive powerhouse Virginia Tech. Tyrod Taylor hasn't really shown any improvement as a QB so far this year, but freshmen RBs Ryan Williams and David Wilson have shown that their running game didn't die with the injury to Darren Evans. Remember, Taylor was also the QB for Tech last year when they dropped 35 on the Huskers in Lincoln. I don't think Nebraska can score enough to keep this one close.

Virginia Tech 30, Nebraska 17

NFL PICKS:
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona, simply because it's a 1 o'clock game, and Arizona sucks, and Dallas -3 vs. NY Giants, because I don't think the Giants are that good.

Thursday Night Lock it Up: GT-Miami

Georgia Tech +4.5 at Miami-
Two weeks in a row of Georgia Tech on Thursday night, and I'm sticking with the Ramblin Wreck despite how they absolutely tore my fucking heart out last week blowing that 24-0 lead. This is a very intriguing matchup with a lot of different angles to look at on both sides, so let's get to it:

Point: Georgia Tech absolutely beat the shit out of Miami on Thursday night last year, rushing 56 times for 472 yards and only throwing 6 times; they should do it again- Miami is basically the same team as last year, and they got absolutely shredded by GT last year. I can't recall a much more dominating performance than the show the Tech runners and O-line put on last year. By this line of thinking, getting points with GT, even if they're now on the road, is an absolute gift.

Counter-Point: There is no fucking way Georgia Tech does that again this year- This is a fair point; I don't see them rushing for 472 yards. But what about 300 yards? That seems doable, and would still give Miami quite the headache. Possibly the bigger issue is what the hell happens if at some point, Josh Nesbitt has to make a play through the air for Tech? He was absolutely dreadful against Clemson last week (3 for 14, 2 INTs), and with the big play ability Miami's offense showed in its opener against Florida State, there is a real possibility this turns into a shootout.

Point: Miami last year was a young, talented team that is still talented but has now matured and will handle the flexbone better- This is a fair point; add in that they are playing at home on a Thursday night with what is likely to be a wild crowd, and Miami's youngsters should feed off that emotion. However, while there is undoubtedly a lot of talent on this team, I think it's very easy to counter whether or not they've matured.

Counter-Point: It's only their second game of the year; how much could they have matured already?- I guess you could say their big win over rival FSU showed "maturity," but their play didn't look all that poised to me but looked more like they got by just on talent. They played very loose against Florida State, had trouble with turnovers, and really should have lost the game if Brandon Fortson makes that catch on the last play. There is no doubt Miami will be better prepared to face the flexbone this time around, but do they have the personnel to stop it? They were shredded by a Florida State offense that managed a whopping 19 points against Jacksonville State last week, and if I were Miami I wouldn't want my defense thinking too much about where the Tech players are going and what they are doing, but I'd rather just want them to read and react. Their defense didn't show much improvement or maturity against FSU over last year's defense that GT just embarassed, so I think it's a tall order to ask them to mature so soon and stop an offense that so thoroughly dominated them last year. Also on the maturity front, Miami could be in for a letdown after that huge win, although working against that for GT is that Miami has had 10 days off since then, so a letdown really shouldn't be much of a concern.

Point: Tech's secondary got lit up by a completely untested QB last week; Jacory Harris is going to have a field day- Clemson threw the ball all over GT in their comeback last week, while Miami's offense, and specifically Jacory Harris, showed some big play potential against FSU. If GT struggled with Clemson's athletes, just wait til they get a load of Harris, Graig Cooper, and Travis Benjamin.

Counter-Point: Harris was still mistake prone against FSU, and he faced absolutely no pass rush- Even without Michael Johnson this year, there is absolutely no way GT doesn't put more pressure on Harris than the miserable effort FSU's defensive front showed. Also, while it wasn't their defense taking advantage of mistakes last week (the punt return TD, fake field goal TD), Paul Johnson's teams have a reputation for being extraordinarily opportunistic, and I see Harris giving them some chances to make some big plays defensively.

Summary- I look for this to be a wild, entertaining, back and forth game, but I think ultimately Miami will make too many mistakes and won't be able to slow down Tech's rushing attack enough to win.
Georgia Tech 37, Miami 31

Fight Night 9/19- Mayweather-Marquez

Saturday night, boxing returns to the national spotlight with probably the most hyped fight since Pacquiao-Hatton, with the undefeated, and now unretired, Floyd Mayweather against Juan Manuel Marquez at a catchweight of 144 pounds. Last we saw Mayweather, he pummeled Ricky Hatton in a similarly hyped fight, while Marquez's claim to fame is fighting two epic battles against the essentially undisputed pound for pound king of boxing, Manny Pacquiao. However, despite the fact that this looks like it should be a slam dunk, great event for boxing, something seems missing. Word has leaked out of both camps that neither fighter looks particularly at their sharpest, and ticket sales for the fight in Vegas have been severely lacking-- as opposed to November's Pacquiao-Cotto showdown, where there are reportedly only 500 tickets left. This is still obviously a must-see fight for any fight fan, but my expectations of what we're going to see are tempered for the following reasons.

1) Floyd Mayweather isn't exactly endearing- Mayweather is a brash loudmouth who has nicknamed himself "Money" despite the fact that he reportedly owes millions to the IRS. In 24/7, he talked and whined about how no one sees all the philanthropic deeds he performs, and then spent most of the time having camera crews filming him doing these things. Then he takes the cameras to his lavish pad and brags and brags about all the ridiculous things he has, how he deserves them all, and how they're all paid for (the IRS seems to dispute that). Everything he does on camera seems forced and scripted, and to me he gives off the disingenuous vibe of an egomaniacal fool trying to tell everybody how great he is.

2) Floyd Mayweather isn't exactly entertaining to watch fight- There is absolutely no denying Mayweather's talent- he is fast, highly skilled, one of the best counter-punchers boxing has ever seen, and is a tremendous defensive fighter. However, all of those things generally don't add up to entertaining brawls. Mayweather-De La Hoya was hyped to be the fight of the decade between two superstars, and it left nearly everyone who watched the fight shaking their head in disgust at how boring the bout was. To me, the only reason Mayweather-Hatton was entertaining was because Hatton's only chance was to keep trying to fight Floyd on the inside, but Hatton was so thoroughly overmatched that whenever he tried to come inside Mayweather would just pummel him until Hatton couldn't take it anymore. To be entertaining, I think Mayweather needs to fight someone who will just constantly attack him, and it needs to be someone good enough to actually be able to attack him and not just barrel his way inside and get crushed like Hatton did.

3) Marquez is too small- And I'm not just talking about the weight thing here. Marquez is moving up two weight classes to get to 144, and this will be easily the biggest he has ever fought at. However, I think the bigger issue is Marquez's height and reach-- Floyd has him bested easily in each of those categories, and I think that will severely limit Marquez's ability to do damage with his jabs. Marquez is fast, but despite being bigger, Mayweather is still probably faster. To make matters worse, reports have leaked out of Marquez's camp that he hasn't looked as fast usual with the added weight. Now, I tend to agree with Bad Left Hook in the link I gave in my last post that weight is generally an overstated factor, but if it is true that Marquez has slowed down at all, then I don't think he has any chance.

4) Marquez's best chance is to use his speed- This goes along with the reasoning I gave in the prior point, but I think Marquez's best chance is to use his speed, land whatever punches he can, and then retreat to prevent Mayweather from unleashing his deadly counter punch combinations. I don't think he'll be able to do this very effectively, and that's why I see this bout turning into a speed bout with a lot of running around the ring a la Mayweather-De La Hoya.

The Prediction- Mayweather by decision, 117-111. Mayweather is a huge 4-1 favorite, and I don't see this being a great fight to bet on since I think Marquez has very little chance to win, and Mayweather is such a huge favorite there's essentially no value in betting him to win straight up. I'll probably end up parlaying Mayweather with the over on the rounds just to try and get some sort of value. Sure, there's a chance Mayweather looks a bit rusty after his layoff of nearly 2 years, but he's been training for this fight for 5 months and I highly doubt rust will effect him after the first round or two, if at all. Juan Manuel Marquez is an excellent, courageous fighter (who was robbed of victories in his fights against Pacquiao) who is ten times more likable than Mayweather, but I just think he's caught in a tough spot here. I don't like the way Marquez's strengths and weaknesses match up with Mayweather's, and I think that while Marquez will show his usual heart and determination, he just isn't big enough, tall enough, or fast enough to win this fight.

Oh, and by the way-- Marquez drinks his own urine.

Extended Links, 9/17

Logic 101, with SI's Luke Winn (via Nunes)- Syracuse playing at Madison Square Garden is like a home game for them, but playing Florida in Tampa is a neutral site game. I can't even begin to describe how stupid that is.

There are few things that get me more riled up than people who constantly harp on Syracuse's scheduling each year, especially the ones who say things like "they don't even leave the state until January" when they play at the Garden. Go look at a fucking map sometime; NYC is 300 miles from Syracuse. Syracuse is playing Cal, likely UNC (if Syracuse beats Cal and UNC beats whoever the hell they play in the other semifinal of whatever the hell the tourney is at MSG), Florida, and Memphis this year. This is very similar to their non conference schedule last year, which everyone lauded as being so tough and made Syracuse being so battle tested. Last year, they beat Kansas and Florida in neutral site games (in Kansas City, so against Kansas was basically a road game) and beat an obscenely overrated Memphis team at Memphis-- yes, they were overrated; the only good teams they beat in the regular season were Tennessee and Gonzaga, they lost in the Sweet 16 of the tourney, and they lost to Syracuse at home when Flynn was playing hurt and Devendorf was suspended. That was it for their glorious, battle tested road schedule last year. Oh and by the way, how "battle tested" did they look when they completely shat the fucking bed against Oklahoma in the tournament? And if you remember, one of those years when Syracuse "never left the state until January?" 2002-2003. They won the national title that year. This year, they'll play two good teams at neutral MSG (yes, the Garden is usually pro-Syracuse, but don't you think there will be more than just a few UNC fans there too? UNC fans, like Syracuse fans, travel very well.), they'll play a "neutral" site game against Florida in Tampa, which I'd like to note, is much closer to Gainesville than Syracuse is to NYC, and they play Memphis at home (closing out that home and home series). Their schedule is fine.

This just about made me piss my pants laughing
Kissing Suzy Kolber

Bad Left Hook has been killing it lately in preparation for Mayweather-Marquez; First, he transcribed a great rant by Al Bernstein about how boxing is great right now and it's just that the stupid mainstream sports media isn't covering it--which is absolutely true on both counts.
Bad Left Hook-Bernstein
And then, there's this great piece about how Marquez moving up to 144 will not be a deciding factor in the fight-- I'm not sure I entirely believe it, but it's a good argument
Bad Left Hook-Marquez

Apparently, Ben Gordon had a documentary made about him chronicling the end of the Bulls season through free agency. I cannot wait to see this; and I'll save my thoughts on how ludicrous it is that the Bulls just let him walk away for absolutely nothing for my sure to be incredibly long, pessimistic, and snarky preview of the Bulls.
Chicago Bulls Confidential

An in-depth look back at last week's Notre Dame-Michigan game. Like I said earlier this week, I only really saw the 4th quarter of this game, but I absolutely agree with Diz that the decision to air it out on 2nd and 10 with a little over 2 minutes to go was just absurd. I usually don't mind throwing in those situations-- especially in college, because two minute drill drives are so easy since the clock stops on each first down-- but to throw a bomb downfield there when your running back has been killing it on the ground all day is just inexplicable. The third down pass, yes that was fine, but just launching a bomb on 2nd and 10 was stupid.
Next Days Starter

Extended Links, 9/15

(Site update- sorry for the lack of posts recently, I've been working on a couple things. Tomorrow, we'll have Extended Links, Thursday Night Lock it up, and a Mayweather-Marquez preview. Friday-- Lock it up Weekend Picks. Next week-- we'll start previewing the NBA season (only a little more than a month away) with a very special Extended Archives treat from 2008 Draft Night, a.k.a. The Night We Got Derrick Rose, and then we'll start previewing all 30 NBA teams.)

Couldn't agree more with Skeets; this is the best Jordan commercial
Ball Don't Lie

This ridiculously in-depth post explains just how bad Tressel's play calling was Saturday night.
Doc Saturday

More fun with Omer Asik-- Doug Thonus breaks down his performances at Eurobasket in great detail. Also of note-- Doug wrote this before last night's Turkey-Serbia tilt, and Asik continued his miserable free throw shooting, going 1 for 10 at the line. I'm not overly concerned about it considering it looks like he's got some natural touch and FT shooting is generally pretty easy to improve, but 1 for 10 is just God awful.
Chicago Bulls Confidential

The triumphant return of Tawmmy from Quinzee. Also, my personal feelings on the two "questionable" roughing the passer calls that went against New England last night? The one on Wilfork was complete bullshit, but the one on Thomas was the right call; he picked up and threw Edwards down after the whistle had blown. Sure, his momentum of the tackle probably started before the whistle blew, but when you put how vicious the throw down looked with the fact that the whistle was blowing to stop the play dead, that's going to get called 100% of the time.
Kissing Suzy Kolber

Mayweather-Marquez is this Saturday... Who ya got? More on this fight later in the week. My initial thoughts-- I'm much more excited for Pacquiao-Cotto in November.
Bad Left Hook

As kind of a follow up to something I touched on in yesterday's Iverson post, here's a look at the potential usage rates for the Grizzlies next year. With AI and Z-Bo now in the fold along with O.J Mayo, Memphis has three really high usage players. Basically, something has to give, whether it's less shots for them, Iverson as the 6th man, or both. And I think Iverson can do both. Also, for everyone saying to me "Iverson's still in a circus in Memphis with Mayo and Randolph," I don't buy it. Randolph may be a lot of things, but from everything I've gathered he's always gotten along with his teammates and always plays hard, and Mayo has behaved professionally both at USC and in Memphis (pun intended with the professional behavior at USC, considering he was paid and all).
Basketball Prospectus

Why Iverson's Not Done Yet

(ed. note: Yea, I know I said I'd have some NFL thoughts later today, but this Iverson idea just came to me. I'll probably give my NFL thoughts tomorrow. Oh and by the way-- lay the 11 with the Pats tonight. I just saw someone at school wearing a Brian Moorman jersey-- that's really all you need to know about the Bills.)

Rarely has there been a figure in professional sports quite as polarizing as Allen Iverson. As the NBA struggled to find an identity post-MJ, Iverson rose to prominence, and to the old guard, became a symbol of all that was wrong with the NBA. He's a thug. Look at those cornows. Look at those tats. He's a me-first gunner. Yet, to many of the league's younger fans, Iverson became a hero, and it isn't all that hard to see why. He's charismatic, overcame numerous obstacles in his life (some self-imposed, others not), and played the game with heart-on-his-sleeve reckless abandon despite his diminutive 6 foot, 160 pound frame. Despite never being a darling to the advanced stats crowd, he still has a career PER of 21.1, and before last season, he never posted a PER below 18. However, after last year's dreadful experience in Detroit, many in and around the NBA speculated that the demise of AI was imminent, buoyed by the lack of interest in the 34 year old free agent. Last week, Iverson surprised many by signing a one year, 3.5 million dollar deal with the moribund Memphis Grizzlies, a seemingly fitting partnership-- a legend on his last legs signing with a desperate franchise going nowhere and losing both games and money. But here's why I'm not counting out Allen Iverson.

1) It's a no lose situation- This applies from both Memphis' standpoint and Iverson's. For Memphis, the absolute worst case scenario is that Iverson repeats his performance from last year. He could sulk, he could fire up awful shots, he could play little to no defense, and he could impede the growth of the team's young talent (Gay, M. Gasol, Conley, Thabeet). And in that absolute worst case scenario, he's gone after the year at the absolute longest--they could always work out a buy out or just tell him to go home if it's that disastrous. The best case scenario for Memphis? Iverson is great-- he returns to his 07-08 form, he acts as a mentor to the young guys, he provides some interest in Memphis and maybe sells some extra seats. For Iverson, it's a no lose situation simply because nobody else wanted him. He didn't get the final big payday he hoped for, nor is he the missing piece on a championship team, but he's in a situation where he can just go out and play and not be surrounded by all the drama that engulfed him last season. If he goes out and plays hard and well this season, maybe the championship contenders will come calling with a meaningful role for him. And this last scenario is not as far fetched as you might think because...

2) Allen Iverson can still play- To me, the tales of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Last year, in an injury plagued season, playing for a new team in a new role he was not familiar with, surrounded by prima donnas and coached by an overmatched neophyte, yes, Iverson struggled. But take a closer look-- his PER was still over the league average (15.8). And the year before that in Denver? He posted a blistering 20.9 PER. Now, I realize Iverson hasn't done much defensively other than gambling for steals in the past few years-- and to be honest, at this point in his career that is not likely to change-- but I don't see him as being as inefficient a scorer as everyone else does. In fact, in the 07-08 season, he posted a career best true shooting percentage at 56.7%. While I would not expect him to replicate that next year, I don't see his career being on a downward spiral, but rather I think this season Iverson will produce somewhere between his numbers from 08-09 and his numbers from 07-08; Maybe something like a PER around 18 and a TS% of 52-53%. Sure, with Iverson you are always going to get some ill-advised shots, but as long as that does not spread to his teammates, I don't see this negatively impacting the Grizzlies, so long as his usage stays in the mid 20s like it did in Denver, and not into the astronomically high mid 30s peaks he saw it rise to in Philadelphia.

3) The normal rules don't apply to Allen Iverson, and he is just dying for everyone to count him out- Sure, you look at his precipitous decline in production last year, his age, the fact that his game is so dependent on his speed, and the litany of hits he's taken throughout his career, and you think ok, the end is near; almost all 2 guards and players like him see a rapid decline in their early 30s. Me? I'm not buying it. The big if here is IF he can stay healthy, but that's a question that's plagued Iverson his entire career. We've seen him fearlessly drive to the hole, get whacked by a guy 10 inches taller and 100 pounds heavier than him, and bounce back up time and time again. Furthermore, Iverson is proud, and his pride has to have been wounded by the yearlong lambasting he has taken for what went on in Detroit. With a full offseason to work hard, get back in shape, and to head into a fresh new situation, I have a feeling he'll be ready to give it everything he has, even for the lowly Grizzlies. I think last year's sulking had little to do with the Pistons stinking, but more to do with him being upset at being traded early in the season, upset at his new situation, angry at his overmatched coach, and the product of the whiny, entitled culture that guys like Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton fostered in Detroit. What I mean by that is Iverson sulked and underperformed last year not because he was on a bad team, but because of the circus around him. In Memphis, the distractions will be minimized and he'll be on a team of young players looking to play hard and make a name for themselves in the league, and I think we'll see a top notch effort from AI and a return of that passion and fire that initially endeared Iverson to us next season.

The "nobody respects me/nobody believed in me" card is something that is constantly played by athletes now, so much so that it has become practically cliched. Seemingly every athlete or team, whether or not anyone actually did believe in them, uses this for motivation. But the thing is, it seems to work, and there are few athletes that this is truer for than Allen Iverson. Coming out of high school he was too troubled and too much of a risk for a big time college. Nobody believed in him, but he went on to excel for two years at Georgetown. Those same questions plagued him as he entered the draft, along with questions about whether he was unselfish enough to play the point or big enough to play off the ball. Nobody believed in him, and Iverson relished in silencing the doubters. As he ascended to superstardom, nobody thought a team could win with him as their best player; nobody believed in him, but he took a team that started Eric Snow, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, and Tyrone Hill to the NBA finals. And now, at age 34, coming off a disappointing season and following an offseason where nobody wanted him? Nobody believes in him. I'm giving him another chance before counting him out.

Weekend wrapup, college edition

Quick hit thoughts on a big weekend of football. FYI, Baseball is now officially dead to me, as not only are the White Sox done, but my fantasy team was just ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Anyway, here's what I thought of the weekend on the college gridiron...

- Houston stunned Oklahoma State 45-35; I thought Oklahoma State would have a letdown game, but I didn't think they'd actually lose. They had a chance down 3 with the ball late, but Dez Bryant cramped up on a slant route, Robinson threw it anyway, and Houston picked it and took it to the house. The real reason Oklahoma State lost though is that they didn't show up until the 3rd quarter; when your defense is as bad as theirs is, you just can't spot teams 24-7 leads. Oklahoma State got back into it and took the lead at 28-24, but they essentially needed their offense to score every time they had the ball in the 2nd half. Real tough loss, but an entertaining game all around, highlighted by Dez Bryant's electrifying punt return TD.

- Michigan beat ND 38-34; I actually didn't see much of this game because I was watching the Houston-OK State game, but from everything I heard this game was wild. I saw most of the 4th quarter of it, but really I just couldn't get too excited for this game; I still don't think either of these teams are that good. Also I didn't take this game in my picks from Friday because I really had no idea what to expect-- I didn't think ND was nearly as good as they looked last week, and I wanted to see Michigan again because I didn't trust a blowout win over Western Michigan. Watching this game intermittently basically confirmed what I thought going in; they are two evenly matched teams each probably destined for 8-4 records. At least this ought to shut Lou Holth up about ND going to the title game.

- WV beat ECU 35-20; everyone seems to be sleeping on West Virginia, but Jarrett Brown threw the ball all over the field in this game, something WV just could not do consistently last year. They've got a huge game at Auburn this week, and Auburn looked solid in their dismantling of Mississippi State Saturday--let's just say it was a mild improvement over the 3-2 slugfest from last year. I'm telling you though, if West Virginia can win at Auburn, this is a real sleeper to get to the BCS title game-- I think the only two teams in the Big East that can beat WV are Pitt and Cinci, and I do not trust Pitt at all.

- TCU pounded Virginia 30-14, and it wasn't even that close. Despite having a soulless ginger for a quarterback, TCU is a good team, and I cannot wait to bet on them to pound the heinously overrated Utah. And Virginia is very bad. As I said Friday-- Al Groh, Dead Man Walking.

- My upset special of Buffalo over Pitt didn't exactly come to fruition, although Buffalo did put up a shit ton of yards. Evidently their defense did not get the memo that gametime was at noon Saturday.

- Similarly, the Georgia/South Carolina under may have been the worst bet I've ever made in my life. They had covered the under with 12 minutes to go in the second quarter. This game is why college football is so great, and so maddeningly frustrtating all at once. Last week each of these offenses looked absolutely pathetic and useless; Georgia could only muster 10 points on Oklahoma State, and USC scored 7-- on a 14 yard drive no less-- on NC State. This week? Oklahoma State surrenders 45 points to Houston, while Georgia rings up 41 on South Carolina. I caught a bit of this game when I wasn't watching USC-Ohio State, and it looked absolutely wild. Of course, I now have absolutely no read on either of these teams and won't be betting on or against them for a couple of weeks.

- I don't want to talk about the end of the UNC-UConn game. It looks all poised to go to OT where UNC might be able to sneak out a rat cover, and then they get a fucking game winning safety. Unreal. And even though UNC won, they really shouldn't be too proud; they looked miserable on offense for most of the game, and UConn is really not very good. A win's a win I guess though.

- Missouri beat Bowling Green 27-20 in what was actually a pretty good game. I didn't notice the line on this was 20 freaking points until Saturday night, so I bet Bowling Green but didn't include it in my picks Friday. Missouri was primed for a letdown here after playing out of their minds against Illinois, and Bowling Green was coming off an impressive blowout of Troy. This game also may be an indication that Illinois is still very bad. Poor Ron Zook; things looked so promising a couple of years ago there.

- And the big game of the day really didn't disappoint, as USC beat Ohio State 18-15. I pretty much hit the nail on the head of how this game was going to play out-- low scoring, relatively conservative football. However, I do have this to say about Pete Carroll-- the man has clearly built a tremendous program and is a great recruiter. But why in God's name does he not feed the ball to Joe McKnight more? He did this when Reggie Bush was there too-- remember how he was on the bench for that 4th and 1 play against Texas in the title game? On the game winning drive, they finally found ways to get McKnight the ball both rushing and receiving, and he essentially carried them for that whole drive. Barkley also was pretty impressive and poised on that drive, but as many people (myself included) have said before, being the QB for USC isn't all that hard with that offensive line and all those playmakers around you. Plus, he was pretty miserable for about 90% of the game, and Barkley wouldn't have even been in position for that game winning drive if USC's defense didn't play so great all game. Again, these are the perks of quarterbacking USC.

And if you're Ohio State? You have to be absolutely kicking yourself for blowing that game. I can't really pinpoint one bad play or one bad decision, but overall I just felt like Tressel's trademark conservative playcalling nipped them in the ass. Pryor didn't play particularly well, but the one area he seemed to excel in Saturday night was throwing the ball down the field. Neither him nor Boom Herron ran the ball with any success, and Pryor wasn't accurate on the short stuff, but he did average over 16 yards a completion-- and they weren't the 2 yard pass, 14 yard run after catch types, but mostly were post patterns down the middle. I understand not wanting to stop the clock with his incompletions, but at some point you've got to think USC was going to put a drive together, especially considering that before the last drive their other TD drive spanned a whole 2 yards. You can't expect your defense to completely shut down USC for the entire game, and at some point you've got to let your playmakers try to do something for you offensively.

Back later today with some thoughts on the opening weekend of the NFL.