Lock It Up: Weekend Picks

Last night? Yea, we're not going to be talking about that. Just know that I looked like that guy in the picture for about 2 hours straight last night. Let's move on to the weekend...

E. Carolina + 7.5 at N. Carolina- When you need a safety in the last two minutes to beat UConn, let's just say that I'm less than impressed with you.

North Carolina 24, E. Carolina 20

UCLA -12.5 vs. Kansas State- Bill Snyder has to be thinking right now, "I came back for this???" First, they barely hold off UMass at home, then they go on the road and lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That actually happened. And they're only getting 12.5 points at a decent UCLA team who just won at Tennessee. This one's going to get ugly.
UCLA 38, Kansas State 10

Florida -29.5 vs. Tennessee- Urban Meyer runs up the score on The Citadel; what do you think he's going to do to big mouth Lane Kiffin who called him out in the offseason?
Florida 62, Tennessee 7

Michigan State +10 at Notre Dame- Yea, I know Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week, but I think 10's too many here. Central Michigan is the best of the directional Michigans, and I'm guessing MSU might have looked past Central Michigan a bit to this game. Either way, I think the Spartans defense is good enough to keep this close.
Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 21

West Virginia +7.5 at Auburn- This line opened at 4, so the betting public has been absolutely hammering Auburn here. As for me, I'm on the record as saying I think both of these teams are pretty good, but I'm also I think the only person in the country on the West Virginia bandwagon. For as great as Pat White was, he made them very one dimensional offensively. Now, they can still run the ball well with Noel Devine, but Jarrett Brown also gives them a much better passer and someone who can get the ball to Jock Sanders out in open space. Need proof of that? Did you see Pat White over throw a wide open Ted Ginn by 15 yards last week? That happened all the time at West Virginia.

Also, look at their schedule after this game: they get a week off, then get Colorado at home on a Thursday night (who is 0-2 with losses to Colorado State and Toledo. Insert joke here), at Syracuse, vs. Marshall, vs. UConn, at South Florida, vs. Louisville, at Cinci, vs. Pitt, at Rutgers. They win this week and they're looking at cruising to 7-0 before going to South Florida; this may be the last chance to get in on West Virginia before everyone else realizes how good they are (or at least how good I think they are). This team is a real sleeper to go to the BCS title game if they get past Auburn here, and at the very least, I think this spread is much too high. Oh, and there's also the added advantage that Bill Stewart is facing a coach who definitely isn't better than him for once.

West Virginia 27, Auburn 24

California -13.5 at Minnesota- Minnesota stinks. Sure, they're 2-0, but they should've lost to Syracuse, and a 20-13 win over Air Force at home does not impress me. Meanwhile, Jahvid Best has been eating babies and absolutely dismantling Maryland and Eastern Washington-- I know, they aren't exactly USC and Florida, but this team has looked ridiculous. Plus, I don't think Minnesota is much of a step up from those two anyway.

California 45, Minnesota 17

Texas -17.5 vs. Texas Tech- You think Texas might be up for this game after what Tech did to them last year? Also, historically Mike Leach's teams can compete against the big boys in Lubbock, but when they go on the road, they get stomped (for a recent example of this, see what happened to them at Oklahoma last year, or even what happened against Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl). And to make things worse, Tech doesn't have half the talent they had last year. I think this one gets ugly early and Texas never takes its foot off the gas

Texas 49, Texas Tech 21.

(Update: somehow forgot to include these two games:)
Oregon State +1 vs. Cincinnati- Cinci has looked impressive so far, completely eviscerating Rutgers and, for what it's worth (probably not much) SE Missouri State, while Oregon State barely held on at UNLV last week. Tony Pike has looked mighty impressive so far, but I want to see Cinci's d-- which lost a lot of talent from last year-- perform against a real offense. Sean Canfield will easily be the best QB they've seen so far this year, and Quiz and James Rodgers will be the best skill position players they've seen too. This should be one of the best games of the weekend, and I'll take Oregon State with the home field advantage.
Oregon State 28, Cincinnati 24

Virginia Tech -5 vs. Nebraska- This line opened curiously low at 2.5, and I'm not ready to take Nebraska and an inexperienced QB on the road against perennial defensive powerhouse Virginia Tech. Tyrod Taylor hasn't really shown any improvement as a QB so far this year, but freshmen RBs Ryan Williams and David Wilson have shown that their running game didn't die with the injury to Darren Evans. Remember, Taylor was also the QB for Tech last year when they dropped 35 on the Huskers in Lincoln. I don't think Nebraska can score enough to keep this one close.

Virginia Tech 30, Nebraska 17

NFL PICKS:
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona, simply because it's a 1 o'clock game, and Arizona sucks, and Dallas -3 vs. NY Giants, because I don't think the Giants are that good.

Thursday Night Lock it Up: GT-Miami

Georgia Tech +4.5 at Miami-
Two weeks in a row of Georgia Tech on Thursday night, and I'm sticking with the Ramblin Wreck despite how they absolutely tore my fucking heart out last week blowing that 24-0 lead. This is a very intriguing matchup with a lot of different angles to look at on both sides, so let's get to it:

Point: Georgia Tech absolutely beat the shit out of Miami on Thursday night last year, rushing 56 times for 472 yards and only throwing 6 times; they should do it again- Miami is basically the same team as last year, and they got absolutely shredded by GT last year. I can't recall a much more dominating performance than the show the Tech runners and O-line put on last year. By this line of thinking, getting points with GT, even if they're now on the road, is an absolute gift.

Counter-Point: There is no fucking way Georgia Tech does that again this year- This is a fair point; I don't see them rushing for 472 yards. But what about 300 yards? That seems doable, and would still give Miami quite the headache. Possibly the bigger issue is what the hell happens if at some point, Josh Nesbitt has to make a play through the air for Tech? He was absolutely dreadful against Clemson last week (3 for 14, 2 INTs), and with the big play ability Miami's offense showed in its opener against Florida State, there is a real possibility this turns into a shootout.

Point: Miami last year was a young, talented team that is still talented but has now matured and will handle the flexbone better- This is a fair point; add in that they are playing at home on a Thursday night with what is likely to be a wild crowd, and Miami's youngsters should feed off that emotion. However, while there is undoubtedly a lot of talent on this team, I think it's very easy to counter whether or not they've matured.

Counter-Point: It's only their second game of the year; how much could they have matured already?- I guess you could say their big win over rival FSU showed "maturity," but their play didn't look all that poised to me but looked more like they got by just on talent. They played very loose against Florida State, had trouble with turnovers, and really should have lost the game if Brandon Fortson makes that catch on the last play. There is no doubt Miami will be better prepared to face the flexbone this time around, but do they have the personnel to stop it? They were shredded by a Florida State offense that managed a whopping 19 points against Jacksonville State last week, and if I were Miami I wouldn't want my defense thinking too much about where the Tech players are going and what they are doing, but I'd rather just want them to read and react. Their defense didn't show much improvement or maturity against FSU over last year's defense that GT just embarassed, so I think it's a tall order to ask them to mature so soon and stop an offense that so thoroughly dominated them last year. Also on the maturity front, Miami could be in for a letdown after that huge win, although working against that for GT is that Miami has had 10 days off since then, so a letdown really shouldn't be much of a concern.

Point: Tech's secondary got lit up by a completely untested QB last week; Jacory Harris is going to have a field day- Clemson threw the ball all over GT in their comeback last week, while Miami's offense, and specifically Jacory Harris, showed some big play potential against FSU. If GT struggled with Clemson's athletes, just wait til they get a load of Harris, Graig Cooper, and Travis Benjamin.

Counter-Point: Harris was still mistake prone against FSU, and he faced absolutely no pass rush- Even without Michael Johnson this year, there is absolutely no way GT doesn't put more pressure on Harris than the miserable effort FSU's defensive front showed. Also, while it wasn't their defense taking advantage of mistakes last week (the punt return TD, fake field goal TD), Paul Johnson's teams have a reputation for being extraordinarily opportunistic, and I see Harris giving them some chances to make some big plays defensively.

Summary- I look for this to be a wild, entertaining, back and forth game, but I think ultimately Miami will make too many mistakes and won't be able to slow down Tech's rushing attack enough to win.
Georgia Tech 37, Miami 31

Fight Night 9/19- Mayweather-Marquez

Saturday night, boxing returns to the national spotlight with probably the most hyped fight since Pacquiao-Hatton, with the undefeated, and now unretired, Floyd Mayweather against Juan Manuel Marquez at a catchweight of 144 pounds. Last we saw Mayweather, he pummeled Ricky Hatton in a similarly hyped fight, while Marquez's claim to fame is fighting two epic battles against the essentially undisputed pound for pound king of boxing, Manny Pacquiao. However, despite the fact that this looks like it should be a slam dunk, great event for boxing, something seems missing. Word has leaked out of both camps that neither fighter looks particularly at their sharpest, and ticket sales for the fight in Vegas have been severely lacking-- as opposed to November's Pacquiao-Cotto showdown, where there are reportedly only 500 tickets left. This is still obviously a must-see fight for any fight fan, but my expectations of what we're going to see are tempered for the following reasons.

1) Floyd Mayweather isn't exactly endearing- Mayweather is a brash loudmouth who has nicknamed himself "Money" despite the fact that he reportedly owes millions to the IRS. In 24/7, he talked and whined about how no one sees all the philanthropic deeds he performs, and then spent most of the time having camera crews filming him doing these things. Then he takes the cameras to his lavish pad and brags and brags about all the ridiculous things he has, how he deserves them all, and how they're all paid for (the IRS seems to dispute that). Everything he does on camera seems forced and scripted, and to me he gives off the disingenuous vibe of an egomaniacal fool trying to tell everybody how great he is.

2) Floyd Mayweather isn't exactly entertaining to watch fight- There is absolutely no denying Mayweather's talent- he is fast, highly skilled, one of the best counter-punchers boxing has ever seen, and is a tremendous defensive fighter. However, all of those things generally don't add up to entertaining brawls. Mayweather-De La Hoya was hyped to be the fight of the decade between two superstars, and it left nearly everyone who watched the fight shaking their head in disgust at how boring the bout was. To me, the only reason Mayweather-Hatton was entertaining was because Hatton's only chance was to keep trying to fight Floyd on the inside, but Hatton was so thoroughly overmatched that whenever he tried to come inside Mayweather would just pummel him until Hatton couldn't take it anymore. To be entertaining, I think Mayweather needs to fight someone who will just constantly attack him, and it needs to be someone good enough to actually be able to attack him and not just barrel his way inside and get crushed like Hatton did.

3) Marquez is too small- And I'm not just talking about the weight thing here. Marquez is moving up two weight classes to get to 144, and this will be easily the biggest he has ever fought at. However, I think the bigger issue is Marquez's height and reach-- Floyd has him bested easily in each of those categories, and I think that will severely limit Marquez's ability to do damage with his jabs. Marquez is fast, but despite being bigger, Mayweather is still probably faster. To make matters worse, reports have leaked out of Marquez's camp that he hasn't looked as fast usual with the added weight. Now, I tend to agree with Bad Left Hook in the link I gave in my last post that weight is generally an overstated factor, but if it is true that Marquez has slowed down at all, then I don't think he has any chance.

4) Marquez's best chance is to use his speed- This goes along with the reasoning I gave in the prior point, but I think Marquez's best chance is to use his speed, land whatever punches he can, and then retreat to prevent Mayweather from unleashing his deadly counter punch combinations. I don't think he'll be able to do this very effectively, and that's why I see this bout turning into a speed bout with a lot of running around the ring a la Mayweather-De La Hoya.

The Prediction- Mayweather by decision, 117-111. Mayweather is a huge 4-1 favorite, and I don't see this being a great fight to bet on since I think Marquez has very little chance to win, and Mayweather is such a huge favorite there's essentially no value in betting him to win straight up. I'll probably end up parlaying Mayweather with the over on the rounds just to try and get some sort of value. Sure, there's a chance Mayweather looks a bit rusty after his layoff of nearly 2 years, but he's been training for this fight for 5 months and I highly doubt rust will effect him after the first round or two, if at all. Juan Manuel Marquez is an excellent, courageous fighter (who was robbed of victories in his fights against Pacquiao) who is ten times more likable than Mayweather, but I just think he's caught in a tough spot here. I don't like the way Marquez's strengths and weaknesses match up with Mayweather's, and I think that while Marquez will show his usual heart and determination, he just isn't big enough, tall enough, or fast enough to win this fight.

Oh, and by the way-- Marquez drinks his own urine.

Extended Links, 9/17

Logic 101, with SI's Luke Winn (via Nunes)- Syracuse playing at Madison Square Garden is like a home game for them, but playing Florida in Tampa is a neutral site game. I can't even begin to describe how stupid that is.

There are few things that get me more riled up than people who constantly harp on Syracuse's scheduling each year, especially the ones who say things like "they don't even leave the state until January" when they play at the Garden. Go look at a fucking map sometime; NYC is 300 miles from Syracuse. Syracuse is playing Cal, likely UNC (if Syracuse beats Cal and UNC beats whoever the hell they play in the other semifinal of whatever the hell the tourney is at MSG), Florida, and Memphis this year. This is very similar to their non conference schedule last year, which everyone lauded as being so tough and made Syracuse being so battle tested. Last year, they beat Kansas and Florida in neutral site games (in Kansas City, so against Kansas was basically a road game) and beat an obscenely overrated Memphis team at Memphis-- yes, they were overrated; the only good teams they beat in the regular season were Tennessee and Gonzaga, they lost in the Sweet 16 of the tourney, and they lost to Syracuse at home when Flynn was playing hurt and Devendorf was suspended. That was it for their glorious, battle tested road schedule last year. Oh and by the way, how "battle tested" did they look when they completely shat the fucking bed against Oklahoma in the tournament? And if you remember, one of those years when Syracuse "never left the state until January?" 2002-2003. They won the national title that year. This year, they'll play two good teams at neutral MSG (yes, the Garden is usually pro-Syracuse, but don't you think there will be more than just a few UNC fans there too? UNC fans, like Syracuse fans, travel very well.), they'll play a "neutral" site game against Florida in Tampa, which I'd like to note, is much closer to Gainesville than Syracuse is to NYC, and they play Memphis at home (closing out that home and home series). Their schedule is fine.

This just about made me piss my pants laughing
Kissing Suzy Kolber

Bad Left Hook has been killing it lately in preparation for Mayweather-Marquez; First, he transcribed a great rant by Al Bernstein about how boxing is great right now and it's just that the stupid mainstream sports media isn't covering it--which is absolutely true on both counts.
Bad Left Hook-Bernstein
And then, there's this great piece about how Marquez moving up to 144 will not be a deciding factor in the fight-- I'm not sure I entirely believe it, but it's a good argument
Bad Left Hook-Marquez

Apparently, Ben Gordon had a documentary made about him chronicling the end of the Bulls season through free agency. I cannot wait to see this; and I'll save my thoughts on how ludicrous it is that the Bulls just let him walk away for absolutely nothing for my sure to be incredibly long, pessimistic, and snarky preview of the Bulls.
Chicago Bulls Confidential

An in-depth look back at last week's Notre Dame-Michigan game. Like I said earlier this week, I only really saw the 4th quarter of this game, but I absolutely agree with Diz that the decision to air it out on 2nd and 10 with a little over 2 minutes to go was just absurd. I usually don't mind throwing in those situations-- especially in college, because two minute drill drives are so easy since the clock stops on each first down-- but to throw a bomb downfield there when your running back has been killing it on the ground all day is just inexplicable. The third down pass, yes that was fine, but just launching a bomb on 2nd and 10 was stupid.
Next Days Starter

Extended Links, 9/15

(Site update- sorry for the lack of posts recently, I've been working on a couple things. Tomorrow, we'll have Extended Links, Thursday Night Lock it up, and a Mayweather-Marquez preview. Friday-- Lock it up Weekend Picks. Next week-- we'll start previewing the NBA season (only a little more than a month away) with a very special Extended Archives treat from 2008 Draft Night, a.k.a. The Night We Got Derrick Rose, and then we'll start previewing all 30 NBA teams.)

Couldn't agree more with Skeets; this is the best Jordan commercial
Ball Don't Lie

This ridiculously in-depth post explains just how bad Tressel's play calling was Saturday night.
Doc Saturday

More fun with Omer Asik-- Doug Thonus breaks down his performances at Eurobasket in great detail. Also of note-- Doug wrote this before last night's Turkey-Serbia tilt, and Asik continued his miserable free throw shooting, going 1 for 10 at the line. I'm not overly concerned about it considering it looks like he's got some natural touch and FT shooting is generally pretty easy to improve, but 1 for 10 is just God awful.
Chicago Bulls Confidential

The triumphant return of Tawmmy from Quinzee. Also, my personal feelings on the two "questionable" roughing the passer calls that went against New England last night? The one on Wilfork was complete bullshit, but the one on Thomas was the right call; he picked up and threw Edwards down after the whistle had blown. Sure, his momentum of the tackle probably started before the whistle blew, but when you put how vicious the throw down looked with the fact that the whistle was blowing to stop the play dead, that's going to get called 100% of the time.
Kissing Suzy Kolber

Mayweather-Marquez is this Saturday... Who ya got? More on this fight later in the week. My initial thoughts-- I'm much more excited for Pacquiao-Cotto in November.
Bad Left Hook

As kind of a follow up to something I touched on in yesterday's Iverson post, here's a look at the potential usage rates for the Grizzlies next year. With AI and Z-Bo now in the fold along with O.J Mayo, Memphis has three really high usage players. Basically, something has to give, whether it's less shots for them, Iverson as the 6th man, or both. And I think Iverson can do both. Also, for everyone saying to me "Iverson's still in a circus in Memphis with Mayo and Randolph," I don't buy it. Randolph may be a lot of things, but from everything I've gathered he's always gotten along with his teammates and always plays hard, and Mayo has behaved professionally both at USC and in Memphis (pun intended with the professional behavior at USC, considering he was paid and all).
Basketball Prospectus

Why Iverson's Not Done Yet

(ed. note: Yea, I know I said I'd have some NFL thoughts later today, but this Iverson idea just came to me. I'll probably give my NFL thoughts tomorrow. Oh and by the way-- lay the 11 with the Pats tonight. I just saw someone at school wearing a Brian Moorman jersey-- that's really all you need to know about the Bills.)

Rarely has there been a figure in professional sports quite as polarizing as Allen Iverson. As the NBA struggled to find an identity post-MJ, Iverson rose to prominence, and to the old guard, became a symbol of all that was wrong with the NBA. He's a thug. Look at those cornows. Look at those tats. He's a me-first gunner. Yet, to many of the league's younger fans, Iverson became a hero, and it isn't all that hard to see why. He's charismatic, overcame numerous obstacles in his life (some self-imposed, others not), and played the game with heart-on-his-sleeve reckless abandon despite his diminutive 6 foot, 160 pound frame. Despite never being a darling to the advanced stats crowd, he still has a career PER of 21.1, and before last season, he never posted a PER below 18. However, after last year's dreadful experience in Detroit, many in and around the NBA speculated that the demise of AI was imminent, buoyed by the lack of interest in the 34 year old free agent. Last week, Iverson surprised many by signing a one year, 3.5 million dollar deal with the moribund Memphis Grizzlies, a seemingly fitting partnership-- a legend on his last legs signing with a desperate franchise going nowhere and losing both games and money. But here's why I'm not counting out Allen Iverson.

1) It's a no lose situation- This applies from both Memphis' standpoint and Iverson's. For Memphis, the absolute worst case scenario is that Iverson repeats his performance from last year. He could sulk, he could fire up awful shots, he could play little to no defense, and he could impede the growth of the team's young talent (Gay, M. Gasol, Conley, Thabeet). And in that absolute worst case scenario, he's gone after the year at the absolute longest--they could always work out a buy out or just tell him to go home if it's that disastrous. The best case scenario for Memphis? Iverson is great-- he returns to his 07-08 form, he acts as a mentor to the young guys, he provides some interest in Memphis and maybe sells some extra seats. For Iverson, it's a no lose situation simply because nobody else wanted him. He didn't get the final big payday he hoped for, nor is he the missing piece on a championship team, but he's in a situation where he can just go out and play and not be surrounded by all the drama that engulfed him last season. If he goes out and plays hard and well this season, maybe the championship contenders will come calling with a meaningful role for him. And this last scenario is not as far fetched as you might think because...

2) Allen Iverson can still play- To me, the tales of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Last year, in an injury plagued season, playing for a new team in a new role he was not familiar with, surrounded by prima donnas and coached by an overmatched neophyte, yes, Iverson struggled. But take a closer look-- his PER was still over the league average (15.8). And the year before that in Denver? He posted a blistering 20.9 PER. Now, I realize Iverson hasn't done much defensively other than gambling for steals in the past few years-- and to be honest, at this point in his career that is not likely to change-- but I don't see him as being as inefficient a scorer as everyone else does. In fact, in the 07-08 season, he posted a career best true shooting percentage at 56.7%. While I would not expect him to replicate that next year, I don't see his career being on a downward spiral, but rather I think this season Iverson will produce somewhere between his numbers from 08-09 and his numbers from 07-08; Maybe something like a PER around 18 and a TS% of 52-53%. Sure, with Iverson you are always going to get some ill-advised shots, but as long as that does not spread to his teammates, I don't see this negatively impacting the Grizzlies, so long as his usage stays in the mid 20s like it did in Denver, and not into the astronomically high mid 30s peaks he saw it rise to in Philadelphia.

3) The normal rules don't apply to Allen Iverson, and he is just dying for everyone to count him out- Sure, you look at his precipitous decline in production last year, his age, the fact that his game is so dependent on his speed, and the litany of hits he's taken throughout his career, and you think ok, the end is near; almost all 2 guards and players like him see a rapid decline in their early 30s. Me? I'm not buying it. The big if here is IF he can stay healthy, but that's a question that's plagued Iverson his entire career. We've seen him fearlessly drive to the hole, get whacked by a guy 10 inches taller and 100 pounds heavier than him, and bounce back up time and time again. Furthermore, Iverson is proud, and his pride has to have been wounded by the yearlong lambasting he has taken for what went on in Detroit. With a full offseason to work hard, get back in shape, and to head into a fresh new situation, I have a feeling he'll be ready to give it everything he has, even for the lowly Grizzlies. I think last year's sulking had little to do with the Pistons stinking, but more to do with him being upset at being traded early in the season, upset at his new situation, angry at his overmatched coach, and the product of the whiny, entitled culture that guys like Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton fostered in Detroit. What I mean by that is Iverson sulked and underperformed last year not because he was on a bad team, but because of the circus around him. In Memphis, the distractions will be minimized and he'll be on a team of young players looking to play hard and make a name for themselves in the league, and I think we'll see a top notch effort from AI and a return of that passion and fire that initially endeared Iverson to us next season.

The "nobody respects me/nobody believed in me" card is something that is constantly played by athletes now, so much so that it has become practically cliched. Seemingly every athlete or team, whether or not anyone actually did believe in them, uses this for motivation. But the thing is, it seems to work, and there are few athletes that this is truer for than Allen Iverson. Coming out of high school he was too troubled and too much of a risk for a big time college. Nobody believed in him, but he went on to excel for two years at Georgetown. Those same questions plagued him as he entered the draft, along with questions about whether he was unselfish enough to play the point or big enough to play off the ball. Nobody believed in him, and Iverson relished in silencing the doubters. As he ascended to superstardom, nobody thought a team could win with him as their best player; nobody believed in him, but he took a team that started Eric Snow, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, and Tyrone Hill to the NBA finals. And now, at age 34, coming off a disappointing season and following an offseason where nobody wanted him? Nobody believes in him. I'm giving him another chance before counting him out.

Weekend wrapup, college edition

Quick hit thoughts on a big weekend of football. FYI, Baseball is now officially dead to me, as not only are the White Sox done, but my fantasy team was just ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Anyway, here's what I thought of the weekend on the college gridiron...

- Houston stunned Oklahoma State 45-35; I thought Oklahoma State would have a letdown game, but I didn't think they'd actually lose. They had a chance down 3 with the ball late, but Dez Bryant cramped up on a slant route, Robinson threw it anyway, and Houston picked it and took it to the house. The real reason Oklahoma State lost though is that they didn't show up until the 3rd quarter; when your defense is as bad as theirs is, you just can't spot teams 24-7 leads. Oklahoma State got back into it and took the lead at 28-24, but they essentially needed their offense to score every time they had the ball in the 2nd half. Real tough loss, but an entertaining game all around, highlighted by Dez Bryant's electrifying punt return TD.

- Michigan beat ND 38-34; I actually didn't see much of this game because I was watching the Houston-OK State game, but from everything I heard this game was wild. I saw most of the 4th quarter of it, but really I just couldn't get too excited for this game; I still don't think either of these teams are that good. Also I didn't take this game in my picks from Friday because I really had no idea what to expect-- I didn't think ND was nearly as good as they looked last week, and I wanted to see Michigan again because I didn't trust a blowout win over Western Michigan. Watching this game intermittently basically confirmed what I thought going in; they are two evenly matched teams each probably destined for 8-4 records. At least this ought to shut Lou Holth up about ND going to the title game.

- WV beat ECU 35-20; everyone seems to be sleeping on West Virginia, but Jarrett Brown threw the ball all over the field in this game, something WV just could not do consistently last year. They've got a huge game at Auburn this week, and Auburn looked solid in their dismantling of Mississippi State Saturday--let's just say it was a mild improvement over the 3-2 slugfest from last year. I'm telling you though, if West Virginia can win at Auburn, this is a real sleeper to get to the BCS title game-- I think the only two teams in the Big East that can beat WV are Pitt and Cinci, and I do not trust Pitt at all.

- TCU pounded Virginia 30-14, and it wasn't even that close. Despite having a soulless ginger for a quarterback, TCU is a good team, and I cannot wait to bet on them to pound the heinously overrated Utah. And Virginia is very bad. As I said Friday-- Al Groh, Dead Man Walking.

- My upset special of Buffalo over Pitt didn't exactly come to fruition, although Buffalo did put up a shit ton of yards. Evidently their defense did not get the memo that gametime was at noon Saturday.

- Similarly, the Georgia/South Carolina under may have been the worst bet I've ever made in my life. They had covered the under with 12 minutes to go in the second quarter. This game is why college football is so great, and so maddeningly frustrtating all at once. Last week each of these offenses looked absolutely pathetic and useless; Georgia could only muster 10 points on Oklahoma State, and USC scored 7-- on a 14 yard drive no less-- on NC State. This week? Oklahoma State surrenders 45 points to Houston, while Georgia rings up 41 on South Carolina. I caught a bit of this game when I wasn't watching USC-Ohio State, and it looked absolutely wild. Of course, I now have absolutely no read on either of these teams and won't be betting on or against them for a couple of weeks.

- I don't want to talk about the end of the UNC-UConn game. It looks all poised to go to OT where UNC might be able to sneak out a rat cover, and then they get a fucking game winning safety. Unreal. And even though UNC won, they really shouldn't be too proud; they looked miserable on offense for most of the game, and UConn is really not very good. A win's a win I guess though.

- Missouri beat Bowling Green 27-20 in what was actually a pretty good game. I didn't notice the line on this was 20 freaking points until Saturday night, so I bet Bowling Green but didn't include it in my picks Friday. Missouri was primed for a letdown here after playing out of their minds against Illinois, and Bowling Green was coming off an impressive blowout of Troy. This game also may be an indication that Illinois is still very bad. Poor Ron Zook; things looked so promising a couple of years ago there.

- And the big game of the day really didn't disappoint, as USC beat Ohio State 18-15. I pretty much hit the nail on the head of how this game was going to play out-- low scoring, relatively conservative football. However, I do have this to say about Pete Carroll-- the man has clearly built a tremendous program and is a great recruiter. But why in God's name does he not feed the ball to Joe McKnight more? He did this when Reggie Bush was there too-- remember how he was on the bench for that 4th and 1 play against Texas in the title game? On the game winning drive, they finally found ways to get McKnight the ball both rushing and receiving, and he essentially carried them for that whole drive. Barkley also was pretty impressive and poised on that drive, but as many people (myself included) have said before, being the QB for USC isn't all that hard with that offensive line and all those playmakers around you. Plus, he was pretty miserable for about 90% of the game, and Barkley wouldn't have even been in position for that game winning drive if USC's defense didn't play so great all game. Again, these are the perks of quarterbacking USC.

And if you're Ohio State? You have to be absolutely kicking yourself for blowing that game. I can't really pinpoint one bad play or one bad decision, but overall I just felt like Tressel's trademark conservative playcalling nipped them in the ass. Pryor didn't play particularly well, but the one area he seemed to excel in Saturday night was throwing the ball down the field. Neither him nor Boom Herron ran the ball with any success, and Pryor wasn't accurate on the short stuff, but he did average over 16 yards a completion-- and they weren't the 2 yard pass, 14 yard run after catch types, but mostly were post patterns down the middle. I understand not wanting to stop the clock with his incompletions, but at some point you've got to think USC was going to put a drive together, especially considering that before the last drive their other TD drive spanned a whole 2 yards. You can't expect your defense to completely shut down USC for the entire game, and at some point you've got to let your playmakers try to do something for you offensively.

Back later today with some thoughts on the opening weekend of the NFL.

Syracuse-Penn State Live Blog

12:00- It's gametime. The optimism I felt an hour ago has completely evaporated with the sight of Penn State. Oh, we're playing these guys? We're fucked.

12:05- Penn State converts a third and long. I'd forgotten how awful Syracuse's secondary is. The only question is "which starting corner with the last name of Scott is worse?" I'm going with Kevyn, simply because he spells his name like that. And I like the name "Nico"

12:08- Well that didn't take long. Touchdown Penn State, on one of the worst defensive plays I've ever seen. That's not being hyperbolic at all; they blitzed 6, got nowhere near the QB, hit Royster on an innocent little slant, and he ran through the defense untouched for a 49 yard TD. Just to reiterate what I said three minutes ago-- Syracuse's secondary is really bad.

12:12- And it's Greg Paulus time. Tell you the truth Syracuse's skill players aren't bad; Delone Carter is a good RB and Mike Williams is an absolute freak. How Robinson recruited those two remains a mystery.

12:14- First look at Cuse's version of the "wildcat," which they call the "stallion." Antwon Bailey runs up the middle for 4 yards on it. Tip to all opponents-- every time they do that Bailey doesn't hand it off and runs right up the middle.

12:15- Time for a look at Syracuse's best player, punter Rob Long! Paulus got sacked on 3rd down. Remember what I said about Cuse having good skill players? Problem is, their O-line blows. Stunningly, Long pins Penn State at their own 4. I'm really going to miss him when he's gone.

12:18- On commercial, I flip over to Pitt-Buffalo to check on my bet. It's already 14-0 Pitt. I may start drinking shortly.

12:20- Penn State has a wideout named Graham Zug Jr. I have nothing to add to that.

12:21- Zug with a 20 yard reception, and there wasn't a Cuse defender within 10 yards of him. One more time, say it with me: Syracuse's secondary is awful.

12:24- You know, Mike Holmes would be a really good defender if he could tackle. Unfortunately, that's kind of an important skill for a defender.

12:28- First and goal Penn State. This has been quite the effortless 96 yard drive.

12:31- First quarter ends, and it's going to be 4th and goal from the 1; looks like Penn State's going to go for it. This has been an impressive goal line stand so far for Cuse, which I'm sure they'll negate here by giving up an easy TD.

12:34- Clark fumbles the snap on 4th and goal!!! That was something Syracuse would do. Cuse's defensive line was really impressive on that stand. Now my money's on a sack for a safety.

12:37- Apparently, Marrone was afraid of the safety/sack too. Syracuse just ran the ball directly up the middle 3 times, getting nothing on every run. George DeLeone would be proud of that playcalling. Number of people reading this that got that reference? 1.

12:42- Wow, something has clicked for Syracuse's defense. They just held Penn State to a three and out, and they didn't get a single yard. The bad news? Syracuse will be starting from their own 2 again. Let's get a little more creative with the playcalling this time boys.

12:45- Playfake on first down, which everyone in the stadium saw coming. However, I still like the call, and Paulus scrambled for 5.

12:47- Fresno is up 14-0 on Wisconsin, and they were getting 9. I have no idea why I didn't bet them.

12:48- Three and out. Paulus looks more jittery in the pocket than a crackhead who just pounded 5 red bulls. To top it off, Our Best Player Rob Long (that's officially his name) just shanked one out of bounds and Penn State is going to start somewhere near Syracuse's 40 yard line. At some point, our offense is going to have to do something here.

12:54- Hot Big Ten Network sideline reporter informs us that there "isn't a lot of emotion on the Penn State sideline." That's because they're playing Syracuse dear. Right on cue, Evan Royster waltzes 15 yards, completely untouched, into the end zone. I can't really get mad at the defense for that; they've been on the field all half and Penn State's been getting great field position. Get a few fucking first downs here Cuse.

1:01- Syracuse gets a first down or two, then in a completely gutless move, they punt on 4th and 3 from the Penn State 35. My mother is now watching the game with me, placing me further on tilt.

1:05- I think Syracuse blitzes on every single defensive play. All out blitzes, zone blitzes, delayed blitzes. It's unreal; our secondary is pathetic enough as it is, stop leaving them in single coverage.

1:07- Wow, Kevyn Scott makes a ridiculous interception. He just ripped it out of the guys hands.; that was awesome. I will now cease making fun of Syracuse's secondary for the next 30 minutes.

1:12- Cuse is moving a bit at the Penn State 40, but there's only 53 seconds in the half and we just burned our last timeout. Apparently, Doug Marrone and Greg Paulus went to the Andy Reid school of clock management.

1:19- I cannot even describe what is happening right now. All you need to know is that it's 4th and 2 from the Penn State 34 and Cuse is going to try a long field goal. And surely miss.

1:20- Someone named Jake Smith, who is apparently our long field goal kicker, kicks the ball somewhere towards Florida. "Duck hook" does not even begin to describe how far left that went. 14-0 Penn State at half. That was an ugly display of football.

1:25- Rough day in Upstate NY; Syracuse is losing, Buffalo is getting creamed, and I'm in Albany losing money. I'm going to make some lunch, and perhaps washing it down with a glass of ice cold gasoline.

1:35- Your announcers for today's UConn-UNC game? Clay Matvick and David Diaz-Infante. I guarantee you one of those names is made up. Oh, and UNC is losing too. I may look into selling body parts soon.

1:42- Second half has started, Cuse starts from their own 24. Let's take a shot or two deep to Williams here.

1:45- Syracuse does precisely nothing and will punt. They threw two passes, each were caught behind the line of scrimmage. Can we please attempt to throw a pass longer than 2 yards?

1:47- New goal for the second half-- I'm going to chart the number of defensive plays where we don't blitz. So far it's 0 for 1.

1:48- 0 for 3. In a related story, Penn State has gotten 2 first downs on those 3 plays.

1:49- 0 for 4, as Clark throws a Chad Pennington-esque floater to a wide open Zug. Stop. Fucking. Blitzing.

1:51- Well, we've stopped blitzing, but Penn State hasn't stopped completing passes to wide open receivers. I'm realizing that perhaps the problem lies in a lack of talent in the secondary. (It's been a half hour since the Scott INT, so I can freely go back to openly mocking them.)

1:52- TD, Clark to Zug. And oh by the way, he was wide open. Our secondary is making Clark to Zug look like Brady to Moss. 21-0 Penn State.

1:55- Nice kick return by Mike Jones (not the rapper, I think), followed by a nice 15 yard Paulus to Williams pass. Apparently we do have a pass play in the playbook that goes more than 1 yard downfield.

2:00- Whoa, a shovel pass! And it kinda worked! We're really opening up the playbook now. Let's go with that stallion look again.

2:01- We call another pass play 10 yards down the field, Paulus puts it right in Alec Lemon's gut, and he drops it. Fuck you Lemon.

2:04- Cuse is moving; first and goal at the 5. This has been a really nice drive actually, mainly because they've been throwing to Williams.

2:07- I'm squarely on tilt. On first down, Cuse runs that dumb dive play that hasn't worked once all game. On second down, they inexplicably run a bubble screen to the utterly useless Alec Lemon. On third down, Paulus scrambles around like a chicken with his head cut off, has a wide open alley to walk into the end zone, and instead dances around like a pussy and gets tackled after running for one yard. Then on 4th down, they finally go back to my boy Mike Williams-- you know, the guy responsible for every positive offensive play of this game-- on a quick slant, and Williams promptly drops the ball in the end zone. That sequence is what I like to call "the past 4 years of Syracuse football in a nutshell."

2:11- Quick three and out for Penn State, as Doug Hogue makes a great play blitzing Clark. Hogue was a RB who was ridiculously underutilized last year, and Marrone switched him to LB because their linebackers sucked. If only Williams had caught that fucking pass. First and ten Cuse on the PSU 45.

2:13- The return of the stallion! Like I said earlier, Bailey fakes handing it off and runs up the middle for 4 yards. They do the same thing every time out of that formation, but for some reason they seem to get positive yards out of it each time. I think they ran that play 15 times against Notre Dame last year and they had no idea how to stop it. End of the third quarter, 21-0 PSU. Should be 21-7. Goddamnit.

2:17- Stop me if this sounds familiar-- Stallion look, Bailey at QB, he fakes the handoff and runs up the middle for 8 yards. It's unreal how effective that play is.

2:21- Paulus looks pretty good throwing the ball, but when shit breaks down he keeps going into "crackhead on red bull" mode. Don't be so afraid of getting hit for christ's sake. On comes Long to punt it away on 4th and 22 from the PSU 35, and Long promptly boots it into the end zone. I remember Long being much better than this last year.

2:24- Hogue nearly picks a pass off. I like the way he's played today. It's good to see my mancrush on him has carried over from offense to defense. Hogue is also responsible for one of my favorite moments of the Greg Robinson era-- last year against Rutgers, he rushed for an 82 yard TD in the first quarter. And never touched the ball again. Greg Robinson everybody!

2:27- Another nice defensive series for Cuse, as Penn State gets 15 yards and then nothing else. Cuse will start from their own 15. This may sound odd considering we're down 21-0 and all, but I've seen some nice things today; the defensive line and linebackers have played really well, and when we've opened it up and let Paulus let it rip downfield, some good things have happened. Definitely some positive signs here.

2:28-Realizing how depressing it is that I feel enthused in a game where we trail 21-0 in the 4th. Syracuse football everybody!

2:29- Paulus promptly throws a pick and Penn State will start at the Cuse 2. I recant every positive thing I just said.

2:33- TD Penn State on 3rd and goal from the 1. Again, this will sound weird considering we're getting killed and all, but I like what I saw there. Cuse stuffed em on two straight runs, they were flying all over the field, pounding their chests, and playing confidently. That is something that just wasn't there under Greg Robinson. Last year after that pick the other team would've scored so easily on the first play. At least there is some effort and confidence this year.

2:37- Stallion look, Bailey at QB, fake handoff, run up the middle for 3 yards. The terrible announcers have just picked up on the fact that they do the same thing every time out of the "wildcat." IT'S THE STALLION ASSHOLES.

2:39- The bubble screen might be my least favorite play ever created. Have you ever seen it gain more than 2 yards?

2:40- Another INT as the ball bounces off Mike Owen's chest, goes straight in the air, and into a LB's arms. I'm done with this game.

Syracuse Football

"We need to make this place the hardest place to play in the country. We need you, we need everyone. This is our state, our town, our team, and we gotta win. Now. G'Orange."

If that video doesn't get you pumped up, you don't have a pulse. Or don't like Syracuse, which basically means you're dead to me anyway. Cuse-Penn State kicks off in an hour, and for those of you who don't know, this used to be a huge rivalry. The rivalry basically died when Cuse joined the Big East and they stopped playing every year, but when I was little and first started following sports this was the rivalry for Syracuse, and I can't even begin to discuss how much I used to hate Penn State. Now they're trying to bring the rivalry back a bit (although it's uncertain whether they'll stil play after this seas0n), and now, we're kind of a joke, and Penn State's kind of good. I don't care; I ordered the Big Ten Network just to watch this game, and I'm all fired up and delusional because I've talked myself into thinking Syracuse has a chance to keep this close. G'Orange.

I'll put my random/suicidal thoughts in a post here during the game in what the kids like to call a "live blog." Be prepared for obscenity-laced tirades.

Lock it up: Weekend Picks

Before we get to this weekend's picks, I would just like to point out that I am in no rational position to discuss the events of last night. I basically hit the nail on the head of what was going to happen in the Pitt-Ten game but was too much of a pussy to bet it, and the team I actually did bet on (Georgia Tech) somehow blew a 24-0 lead and won without covering. Fuck me.

College Picks:

UNC -4 at UConn- This is a good litmus test for UNC; they have a lot of talent-- most likely a good amount more than UConn-- but they are still going on the road to play against a decent BCS conference team. UConn struggled to get past Ohio last week, while UNC has ACC title aspirations this season, especially considering how dreadful the ACC performed last weekend. UConn lost a lot of talent from last year's team (notably, Donald Brown), and I think UNC rolls here.

UNC 34, UConn 20

West Virginia -6.5 vs. East Carolina- I very nearly bet on West Virginia to win the BCS title this year as a longshot bet at 50-1; they still have a good amount of talent from Rodriguez's days, including top notch RB Noel Devine. There's also a revenge factor at play here this week as West Virginia looks to avenge last year's embarassing loss at ECU. ECU is a pretty decent team themselves, but this is really more a pro West Virginia pick than anything anti-ECU. The only thing that really has me scared about this pick is the coaching matchup-- Skip Holtz can coach circles around Bill Stewart. Need proof? See the following from Bill Stewart's twitter page:

West Virginia 27, East Carolina 17


Mississippi State +14 at Auburn- I actually think Auburn's going to be decent this year, but I just can't shake the visual image of what happened the last time these two squared off:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL-mNqDeJpM

Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2

South Carolina/Georgia under 38- covered in yesterday's links post. Basically, these two teams never score a lot against each other, and judging by how anemic their offenses looked last week, this year will be no different. Hell, Georgia only managed 14 points against South Carolina last year with Stafford, Moreno, and Massoquoi all on board; I shudder to think what will happen this year. My only fear with this under is Stephen Garcia's involvement; he could have one of his craptastic 5 turnover, 2 of which go back for TDs games. I don't see that happening though; I also like South Carolina with the 7 points here, although I probably won't touch it.
Georgia 16, South Carolina 13

Houston +15 at Oklahoma State
I love Oklahoma State. I love Mike Gundy, Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, and Dez Bryant. However, this has letdown game written all over it. Plus, Houston's got a pretty prolific offense, and I think holding Georgia to 10 points last week was more about Georgia's offense being really, really bad than anything positive Oklahoma State's defense did. Houston's a pretty good football team, and if Oklahoma State isn't careful they could lose this game. I don't think they will, but I also don't think Oklahoma State's D will stop Houston enough to cover.
Oklahoma State 45, Houston 35

Buffalo +10.5 vs. Pittsburgh- This line seems wayyyyyyyyy too high, and I think Buffalo could win this outright. They will quite possibly have the best player on the field this game-- WR Naaman Roosevelt-- and people are far too high on Pittsburgh, especially considering Dave Wannstedt is still their coach. It's also interesting to note that Buffalo was getting 8.5 at freaking UTEP last week and they went into El Paso and won outright, so it's quite possible that Vegas just does not have a good read on this team. Finally, I'll take Turner Gill as my coach (especially at home) over freaking Wannstedt any day of the week.
Buffalo 34, Pittsburgh 31

TCU -11 at Virginia- Yup, I'm taking a Mountain West team, laying double digit points, on the road, at an ACC team. Why you ask? Virginia lost at home to freaking William and Mary last week. Al Groh-- Dead Man Walking.
TCU 41, Virgina 17

Ohio State +7 vs. USC- Hear me out first before you mock me. I know that Ohio State has been spectacularly bad in most of their big out of conference games lately and that they nearly lost to Navy at home last week. However, they gave Texas a hell of a game in the Fiesta Bowl last year-- a game where no one, myself included, thought they had a chance. Also, he is far from perfect, but Jim Tressel is still a very good coach, and I think he's going to make this a grind it out affair. USC is starting a true freshman quarterback on the road, and I highly doubt they are going to open up the playbook and take the training wheels off Barkley. I think USC wants to make sure Barkley doesn't kill them with any big mistakes, make a few decent throws to keep the defense honest, and then just let Joe McKnight go to work. I see this being a relatively low scoring game where every yard and every point is fought for, and that fits right up Jim Tressel's alley. I see this being a field goal game either way. So, at gunpoint, the pick to win is...
USC 20, Ohio State 17.

NFL PICKS:
Only a few here...

Carolina +2.5 vs. Philly- I like the Eagles a lot this year and I love McNabb, but is it just me or do they always seem to start slowly? Carolina's got a tremendous offensive line, and I think they will make this a physical game and pound the ball on them. Look for a big game from DeAngelo Williams.
Carolina 27, Philly 24

Houston -4.5 vs. Jets- I think the Jets are going to stink this year. It's really as simple as that. Oh, and Mark Sanchez? Meet Mario Williams. You're about to find out life as a QB isn't so easy when you're not at USC getting 6 seconds in the pocket every down to find your wide open receivers down the field.
Houston 28, Jets 10

Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis- These teams always seem to play close games, and I don't think Indianapolis is going to be all that good this year.
Indianapolis 23, Jacksonville 21

Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago- I love Green Bay this year; even have a bet on them at 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. Although I felt a lot better about that bet before Bill Simmons picked them to win the Super Bowl.
Green Bay 30, Chicago 24

The Problem with the Hornets

I can't believe how bad your teammates are either, Chris.

This is something that's been knawing at me for a while, and the link I gave to Sham earlier today had a quote that really underscored what I've felt about the Hornets for a while:

"Peja is still going, although he's not far away from being Postdrag. He owes it all to the pretty tremendous contract that Jeff Bower gave him, one which calls for two more years and $27.6 million for a player with a PER of 12.5 last year. Nice. Their other shocking contract of that offseason - Bobby Jackson - has finally expired, but not before the Hornets traded it for a longer one (Mike James, later Antonio Daniels) just to get a two month Bonzi Wells cameo. They made a "go for it" trade, missed by miles, and are still suffering from the repercussions, having to dump players to avoid the tax. Nasty. It often escapes mention quite how bad Jeff Bower has been in New Orleans. He wasn't even the one who drafted Chris Paul."

When New Orleans got Chris Paul and realized how good he was, they went with what I call the "casual fan" team building model. What is that you ask? It's buying into stupid beliefs that casual fans spout off like "great point guards make everyone around them better," and trying to build their team by just filling in with complementary pieces. I say that is a stupid belief because great PG's don't make everyone around them better; go to basketball-reference or 82games.com and look at the stats for players before they play with a great PG, when they play with one, and after they play with one. Chris Paul has not made James Posey or Mo Pete or Peja or Rasual Butler any better playing with him. Steve Nash did not magically morph Quentin Richardson or Raja Bell or Eddie House or James Jones into better players. People always trot out Marion playing with Nash as the poster child for this theory, but you could even argue that Nash did not make him better considering Marion was pretty damn good before Nash ever got to Phoenix. Sure, I understand that complementary players are needed in team building, but teams like Phoenix and New Orleans thought they could get by without any other playmakers on the perimeter because they had such great PG's, and it hasn't worked (although it almost did for Phoenix, but it also helps when you have Amare and Marion in their primes in the frontcourt, along with one of the best coaches in the league).

This is what New Orleans did; they dumped huge money on an aging and decomposing Peja. The supposed reasoning? "Well, all he'll have to do is stand there and wet open threes on Paul's drive and kicks." They threw the MLE at Mo Pete under the similar thinking of "well, with Chris Paul on board, we don't need a 2 guard who can create, but just one who can stay out of the way, play defense, and hit open jumpers." That same line of reasoning led them to later dump the MLE on an aging James Posey. Unless you have two great players in the front court (like Phoenix when they had Marion and Amare to go with Nash) who can score, you need wing players around your stud PG that can do more than just hit stand still jumpers and play defense.

This even applies to stars that aren't PG's; look at the Cavs and LeBron. For years their team building strategy was to just surround him with guys who can bang open jumpers and do nothing else; guys like Damon Jones, Daniel Gibson, and Donyell Marshall. They were always good (because LeBron was so incredible, and they played really good D), but they were always dreadful on offense and a step short of being a true contender. What happens last year? They go out and get two guards (Mo Williams and Delonte West) that can not only hit that open jumper, but they can also create a little bit of offense for themselves and others. All of a sudden, their offense is great, they win 66 games, and they lose in the conference finals to a Magic team that Cleveland didn't match up well with and because Orlando played out of their minds. Even LeBron needs someone else who can create.

Why has this struck such a nerve with me? Well for starters, I hate to see one of the best PG's of all time in a bad situation. Chris Paul has had two of the best statistical seasons ever for a PG in the past two years, and sadly it looks like New Orleans isn't going anywhere fast because of the black holes they have at the 2 and 3. And secondly, as a Bulls fan, this is very similar to the defense the Bulls and many of their fans have made for letting Ben Gordon go; "well, he was expendable because we have Rose, and he's our creator." Where is it written in stone that you can only have one creator on the perimeter? I understand the need for team balance, but why do all of a sudden people think players like Nash and Deron Williams and Rose and Paul can just do it all on their own on the perimeter? Why have more teams not modeled themselves after the Spurs? Sure, they have one of the greatest PF's of all time, but they also have two damned good guards who can both create for themselves, create for others, and hit jumpshots. When Ginobili was out last year, no one seemed to think that some complementary player could fill in his role because they had Parker and he was their creator and they had Duncan and he was their big. Yet, for Paul, Nash, Kidd, Rose, etc. it's a different standard.

So hang in there CP3; there are those of us out there who know that you're great, who know that you can't do it all, and who know that your GM sucks. And so help me God, if the Bulls start dumping MLE contracts on average swingmen because "Derrick Rose is our creator"...

Stone Cold Lock of the Night

Georgia Tech -5 vs. Clemson

Maybe with Tommy Bowden gone Clemson won't be such a freaking enigma, but I'm not betting on it. They were 2-7 on Thursday nights under Bowden (random meaningless stat alert!), and they always seemed to have just enough talent to be enticing, but sucked just enough to completely shit the bed whenever they played a really good team. Here, they face a really good team. Georgia Tech runs the crazy Paul Johnson triple option, and they have quite possibly the best running back in the country in Jonathan Dwyer (it's either him or Jahvid Best). I also generally like to bet on the home team on these ESPN Thursday night games-- the crowd is always wild for these games and the players generally always seem pumped up (except for NC State last week, who turned in one of the worst displays of organized football I've ever seen. I blame that on their fans for wearing "Beat Carolina" shirts. You were playing freaking South Carolina. They aren't good.). So, don't fear laying the points here because this spread should be more like 10; I think Clemson has sucked Vegas into thinking they're better than they are once again, and Georgia Tech seems to be underrated since Paul Johnson came to town because people don't trust the triple option in a BCS conference. Their offense is for real, Paul Johnson is for real, Georgia Tech is for real, and Jonathan Dwyer is for real.

Georgia Tech 31, Clemson 13

Also of note... the NFL is back tonight. I'm obviously excited, but I'm not particularly excited to watch two conservative, defensive minded teams battle tonight. At gunpoint, I'd take the Titans with the 6 points just because i think it'll probably be a low scoring, close game, but I'm not touching this game. I don't think the Titans are going to be particularly good this year (I'm thinking 8-8 or 9-7), they are pretty one dimensional offensively, and losing Albert Haynesworth is a huge blow to the defense. So my recommendation for the night is take what you would've put on this game on Georgia Tech, and head to your local watering hole so you can watch both games. And revel in the fact that football is back.

More picks for the weekend to come tomorrow.

Extended Links, 9/10

The Syracuse-Penn State annihilation is on the God-forsaken Big Ten network this weekend, but apparently Time Warner customers can order it Friday and cancel it Sunday for a whopping 14 cents. A query: if Syracuse is down 35-0 at half, can I only pay 7 cents?
Nunes Magician

Why I'll be taking the under in Saturday's Georgia-South Carolina game
Dr. Saturday

Great piece from BDL's Kelly Dwyer on John Stockton... and like me, KD is a Bulls fan. Makes you appreciate just how good Stockton was that he can inspire these feelings from a Bulls fan.
Ball Don't Lie

Omer Asik (rights owned by the Bulls after Paxson traded 3 second rounders for him) ripped up the Polish Hammer Marcin Gortat in Eurobasket yesterday. His contract in Europe is up after this year so maybe/hopefully he'll be in a Bulls uniform come 2010.
BlogaBull

If you have a half hour to kill, sit down and read this ridiculous recap of the 1996 draft that Sham put together
ShamSports

EtG Archives: the Syracuse-Oklahoma Sweet 16 Debacle

(ed. note: The following piece was originally a series of e-mails sent to my friends from college before and after Syracuse played Oklahoma in the NCAA tournament. Knowing my psychotic Syracuse fandom (and baffled by it since we didn't go to Syracuse), they were curious as to my state of mind after they completely and inexplicably shat the bed against Oklahoma. Remember, Syracuse was one of the hottest teams in the country coming in to the tournament, as late in the year they won at Marquette, had that great run in the Big East tournament, and looked like they were on cruise control in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. And then the wheels came flying off...)

E-mail sent before the game:

Gerry McNamara jersey on? check. Syracuse shorts on? check. Labatt blue light in hand? check.

/checks clock... 4:27 pm. Still 3 hours til tipoff. Words cannot describe how amped I am. I'm probably going to have a heart attack at some point today/tonight.

E-mail sent a few minutes later, after my friends wondered who I was drinking with:

Yes I'm drinking a few casuals by myself in my room. I don't know where my roommates are; they were home and have mysteriously left. I know they're going out to dinner tonight at some point though, presumably because I may be home watching the Cuse game and they don't want to be near me when that happens. Although I think I'm going to go watch at my friend's apartment with approximately 10 other cuse fans. Odds of him getting evicted: 3-1.

E-mail sent the following Monday, describing my day/night of watching that trash:

Okay here is a rough summary of my state of mind before, during, and after the cuse game. Let me first prephase this with a few of my comments on the game in general. It was an absolute fluke game. Syracuse lost because Devo and Rautins missed about 6-7 wide open threes in the first half while Tony Crocker- who is a God awful shooter and a pretty bad player in general-- made it rain and poured in 28 freaking points. However, I do have a theory as to why Devo and Rautins missed those shots-- each of the first 3's they took in the game were absolutely horrendous shots. Devo took a 27 footer with about 20 on the shot clock that barely grazed iron in the first 2 minutes of the game, and on Rautins' first possession he inexplicably launched a fade away NBA three with a hand in his face with about 25 on the shot clock. I think these two shots threw them off before they could ever get going. This fluke first half threw everything off; the teams actually played evenly in the second half. Anyway, let's travel back in time to Friday night, a.k.a. one of the worst nights of my life.

Before the game- I'm 6 beers deep before tip off and at a bar at a golf course in my town. Why a bar at a golf course? Because it was basically empty, we got to watch it with sound on, and my friend who wanted us to watch it at his apartment had to work late. We plan on going to his apartment at halftime. I'm excited. I'm amped. I can taste the national title.

During the game- The first few possessions were practically vomit inducing. each team was mauling each other and no fouls were being called. Neither team could hang on to the ball, and the aforementioned Tony "I suck" Crocker (ed. note: when I get bitter I coin incredibly creative nicknames for players who have wronged me) throws in a three. To top it off, Cuse plays great d one possession, and some asshole with a faux hawk (ed. note: for the rest of my life I will refer to Austin Johnson as "Asshole with a faux hawk") banks in a running 18 footer at the shot clock buzzer. Needless to say, I'm getting nervous. The score is 5-0, and my stomach is in knots. Predictably, Syracuse goes away from their offense because they are nervous, getting mauled, and can't hang on to the ball. They go in to what i like to call "hero mode," something that was responsible for about 80% of their losses this year. What is hero mode you ask? When Flynn (him to a lesser extent, cause he actually can take over games), Devo, Rautins, and Harris begin trying to do everything on their own. Whoever has the ball of that group will immediately either barrel into the lane out of control or huck up a three-- usually without anyone else on the floor touching the ball-- and an awful shot or turnover coming with about 25 on the shot clock. Cuse gets down 14-6, and I proclaim to my friends that we're going to lose this game by 20. To Boeheim's credit, he recognizes hero mode quickly, calls timeout, and gets them to run their sets. Stunningly (sarcasm), this results in them getting great looks. Flynn is getting layups and easy mid range J's, AO (Arinze Onuaku) and Ricky (Rick Jackson; as you can see, I have no problem calling Syracuse players by their nicknames) are getting good looks inside, and Devo and Rautins are getting some of the most wide open 3's they've ever seen. Most normal games, they'd explode for about a 15-0 run and take a 5 or 10 point lead. However, Devo and Rautins are inexplicably both way off. They havent shot this badly all year, probably because of a) those awful shots I referenced earlier and b) they haven't had looks this open all season.

For most of the rest of the half, they hang around, and eventually make a move to cut it to 1 with about 4 minutes left. I'm ecstatic; after all, they can't buy a 3 and are within 1. Then, Tony Crocker rips my soul out. The bricks keep piling up for Cuse, while Crocker pulls shot after shot out of his ass. I'm getting angrier and angrier, and drunker and drunker. When crocker hit that 3 at the buzzer to make it 13 at half, I'm as angry as i've ever been. I slap the bar, storm out of the bar, and snarl to my friends "I'll see you at (redacted)'s apartment". I race over to my friends apartment for the second half. Deep down, I know right now the game's over, but I talk myself into believing (hey, if Rautins and Devo can get a couple 3's to drop, theyre right back in this!). I proclaim that if they can get it 7 or 8 by the under 16 timeout, they'll have a good chance. Everyone agrees. Then, Oklahoma starts the 2nd half on a 7-0 run, and hope is gone. I am now somewhere between maniacally angry and morbidly depressed, mostly because I now have to watch this shit for 40 more minutes knowing they're done. We resort to taking potshots at Oklahoma's cheerleaders. For instance, when they show one, my friend shouts "hey porky, why don't you throw on a jersey I'm sure you'll bomb in a 3 out of your ass too." (That quote seemed much funnier at the time. Manical anger takes a toll on your sense of humor.) At about the 12 minute mark, my friend who is as equally insane about Syracuse as I am and lives in Florida texts me requesting which method of suicide I'd reccommend. He's doubly depressed because he's been watching this game with his parents and they are appalled at his behavior. We spend the next 15 minutes texting each other the most gruesome forms of self-inflicted death we can imagine, including my favorite, forced beer bottle sodomy followed by a bullet in the brain. This is surprisingly therapeutic (the texting, not the beer bottle sodomy). (If we're lucky, this friend may grace us with some posts on here from time to time.)

Eventually, I get hammered and pass out on my friend's floor and forget this ever happened. I then wake up and play golf the next morning, beginning drinking at 11 am, and I fire the worst round of golf in my life. This isn't coming from Tiger Woods either; I'm talking a cool 124 (this is the first and last time my golf game will be mentioned on this blog). At the end of last season I was routinely shooting 100 or just over; good to see I was on such tilt to negate any progress I had made. I also lost 5 balls that day. And as a final postscript, just when I thought I was over it, I watch Oklahoma play like absolute trash against UNC sunday, and the esteemed Mr. Tony Crocker goes back to his useless, bricklaying self. This made me angry again. Oh well; the future is bright for Cuse hoops; 3 solid recruits coming in next year, a transfer from Iowa State who sat out this year is now eligible, and if Jonny returns (which he has said he is going to), this is a legit preseason top 10 team.

(Postscript: And as you know, not only did Flynn leave, but so did Devo and Harris. Wonderful; back to mediocrity this season. Although I don't really blame any of the three of them for leaving-- Flynn obviously, but Devo and Harris each have families to support, and since Devo got a redshirt year he actually has already graduated. I'd just like to point out that since winning the title in 2003, Syracuse has won exactly 4 NCAA tournament games. And lost to Vermont. Which may have actually been the worst night of my life. But that's a story for another day...).

Oh, Hello There

Welcome to Extend the Game, a place that will make you as fucking happy as Randy Moss is right there. Let me tell you a bit about me and what to expect here:

- I'm a diehard fan of the Bulls, the White Sox, and Syracuse football and basketball. Expect many demented rantings about those teams and the people in charge of them. I'm looking at you, Vinny Del Negro.

- The sports that will be touched on most around here will be, in order, the NBA, college football, college basketball, the NFL, and maybe a touch of boxing and baseball.

- In the next few days, in addition to new content, I'm going to post some older pieces I've written so you can see me fully on tilt.

- Get used to the term "on tilt." Wikipedia (which is always right) defines tilt as "a term for a state of mental frustration in which a poker player plays a suboptimal game. " This happens to me in everyday life often, usually related to one of my teams losing or my multitude of gambling losses.

- This place is going to get very NBA centric as the new season approaches and throughout the year. Until then, expect a heavy dose of college football, including unsolicited gambling advice from someone who has lost way too much money gambling in the past year. So you'll either win money with me, which is good for everyone, or you can make fun of me for my horrible picks, which is fun for you at least. College football picks will continue throughout the NBA season.

- In no particular order, athletes I have unabashed mancrushes on: Derrick Rose, Donovan McNabb, Carmelo Anthony, Tyrus Thomas, Felix Hernandez, Adam Jones (the baseball player), Ben Gordon, J.R. Smith, Mark Reynolds, Calvin Johnson, and Mark Buehrle. Expect many more to join that list.