Before we get to this weekend's picks, I would just like to point out that I am in no rational position to discuss the events of last night. I basically hit the nail on the head of what was going to happen in the Pitt-Ten game but was too much of a pussy to bet it, and the team I actually did bet on (Georgia Tech) somehow blew a 24-0 lead and won without covering. Fuck me.
College Picks:
UNC -4 at UConn- This is a good litmus test for UNC; they have a lot of talent-- most likely a good amount more than UConn-- but they are still going on the road to play against a decent BCS conference team. UConn struggled to get past Ohio last week, while UNC has ACC title aspirations this season, especially considering how dreadful the ACC performed last weekend. UConn lost a lot of talent from last year's team (notably, Donald Brown), and I think UNC rolls here.
UNC 34, UConn 20
West Virginia -6.5 vs. East Carolina- I very nearly bet on West Virginia to win the BCS title this year as a longshot bet at 50-1; they still have a good amount of talent from Rodriguez's days, including top notch RB Noel Devine. There's also a revenge factor at play here this week as West Virginia looks to avenge last year's embarassing loss at ECU. ECU is a pretty decent team themselves, but this is really more a pro West Virginia pick than anything anti-ECU. The only thing that really has me scared about this pick is the coaching matchup-- Skip Holtz can coach circles around Bill Stewart. Need proof? See the following from Bill Stewart's twitter page:
West Virginia 27, East Carolina 17Mississippi State +14 at Auburn- I actually think Auburn's going to be decent this year, but I just can't shake the visual image of what happened the last time these two squared off:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL-mNqDeJpM
Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2
South Carolina/Georgia under 38- covered in yesterday's links post. Basically, these two teams never score a lot against each other, and judging by how anemic their offenses looked last week, this year will be no different. Hell, Georgia only managed 14 points against South Carolina last year with Stafford, Moreno, and Massoquoi all on board; I shudder to think what will happen this year. My only fear with this under is Stephen Garcia's involvement; he could have one of his craptastic 5 turnover, 2 of which go back for TDs games. I don't see that happening though; I also like South Carolina with the 7 points here, although I probably won't touch it.
Georgia 16, South Carolina 13
Houston +15 at Oklahoma State
I love Oklahoma State. I love Mike Gundy, Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, and Dez Bryant. However, this has letdown game written all over it. Plus, Houston's got a pretty prolific offense, and I think holding Georgia to 10 points last week was more about Georgia's offense being really, really bad than anything positive Oklahoma State's defense did. Houston's a pretty good football team, and if Oklahoma State isn't careful they could lose this game. I don't think they will, but I also don't think Oklahoma State's D will stop Houston enough to cover.
Oklahoma State 45, Houston 35
Buffalo +10.5 vs. Pittsburgh- This line seems wayyyyyyyyy too high, and I think Buffalo could win this outright. They will quite possibly have the best player on the field this game-- WR Naaman Roosevelt-- and people are far too high on Pittsburgh, especially considering Dave Wannstedt is still their coach. It's also interesting to note that Buffalo was getting 8.5 at freaking UTEP last week and they went into El Paso and won outright, so it's quite possible that Vegas just does not have a good read on this team. Finally, I'll take Turner Gill as my coach (especially at home) over freaking Wannstedt any day of the week.
Buffalo 34, Pittsburgh 31
TCU -11 at Virginia- Yup, I'm taking a Mountain West team, laying double digit points, on the road, at an ACC team. Why you ask? Virginia lost at home to freaking William and Mary last week. Al Groh-- Dead Man Walking.
TCU 41, Virgina 17
Ohio State +7 vs. USC- Hear me out first before you mock me. I know that Ohio State has been spectacularly bad in most of their big out of conference games lately and that they nearly lost to Navy at home last week. However, they gave Texas a hell of a game in the Fiesta Bowl last year-- a game where no one, myself included, thought they had a chance. Also, he is far from perfect, but Jim Tressel is still a very good coach, and I think he's going to make this a grind it out affair. USC is starting a true freshman quarterback on the road, and I highly doubt they are going to open up the playbook and take the training wheels off Barkley. I think USC wants to make sure Barkley doesn't kill them with any big mistakes, make a few decent throws to keep the defense honest, and then just let Joe McKnight go to work. I see this being a relatively low scoring game where every yard and every point is fought for, and that fits right up Jim Tressel's alley. I see this being a field goal game either way. So, at gunpoint, the pick to win is...
USC 20, Ohio State 17.
NFL PICKS:
Only a few here...
Carolina +2.5 vs. Philly- I like the Eagles a lot this year and I love McNabb, but is it just me or do they always seem to start slowly? Carolina's got a tremendous offensive line, and I think they will make this a physical game and pound the ball on them. Look for a big game from DeAngelo Williams.
Carolina 27, Philly 24
Houston -4.5 vs. Jets- I think the Jets are going to stink this year. It's really as simple as that. Oh, and Mark Sanchez? Meet Mario Williams. You're about to find out life as a QB isn't so easy when you're not at USC getting 6 seconds in the pocket every down to find your wide open receivers down the field.
Houston 28, Jets 10
Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis- These teams always seem to play close games, and I don't think Indianapolis is going to be all that good this year.
Indianapolis 23, Jacksonville 21
Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago- I love Green Bay this year; even have a bet on them at 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. Although I felt a lot better about that bet before Bill Simmons picked them to win the Super Bowl.
Green Bay 30, Chicago 24
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