Saturday night, boxing returns to the national spotlight with probably the most hyped fight since Pacquiao-Hatton, with the undefeated, and now unretired, Floyd Mayweather against Juan Manuel Marquez at a catchweight of 144 pounds. Last we saw Mayweather, he pummeled Ricky Hatton in a similarly hyped fight, while Marquez's claim to fame is fighting two epic battles against the essentially undisputed pound for pound king of boxing, Manny Pacquiao. However, despite the fact that this looks like it should be a slam dunk, great event for boxing, something seems missing. Word has leaked out of both camps that neither fighter looks particularly at their sharpest, and ticket sales for the fight in Vegas have been severely lacking-- as opposed to November's Pacquiao-Cotto showdown, where there are reportedly only 500 tickets left. This is still obviously a must-see fight for any fight fan, but my expectations of what we're going to see are tempered for the following reasons.1) Floyd Mayweather isn't exactly endearing- Mayweather is a brash loudmouth who has nicknamed himself "Money" despite the fact that he reportedly owes millions to the IRS. In 24/7, he talked and whined about how no one sees all the philanthropic deeds he performs, and then spent most of the time having camera crews filming him doing these things. Then he takes the cameras to his lavish pad and brags and brags about all the ridiculous things he has, how he deserves them all, and how they're all paid for (the IRS seems to dispute that). Everything he does on camera seems forced and scripted, and to me he gives off the disingenuous vibe of an egomaniacal fool trying to tell everybody how great he is.
2) Floyd Mayweather isn't exactly entertaining to watch fight- There is absolutely no denying Mayweather's talent- he is fast, highly skilled, one of the best counter-punchers boxing has ever seen, and is a tremendous defensive fighter. However, all of those things generally don't add up to entertaining brawls. Mayweather-De La Hoya was hyped to be the fight of the decade between two superstars, and it left nearly everyone who watched the fight shaking their head in disgust at how boring the bout was. To me, the only reason Mayweather-Hatton was entertaining was because Hatton's only chance was to keep trying to fight Floyd on the inside, but Hatton was so thoroughly overmatched that whenever he tried to come inside Mayweather would just pummel him until Hatton couldn't take it anymore. To be entertaining, I think Mayweather needs to fight someone who will just constantly attack him, and it needs to be someone good enough to actually be able to attack him and not just barrel his way inside and get crushed like Hatton did.
3) Marquez is too small- And I'm not just talking about the weight thing here. Marquez is moving up two weight classes to get to 144, and this will be easily the biggest he has ever fought at. However, I think the bigger issue is Marquez's height and reach-- Floyd has him bested easily in each of those categories, and I think that will severely limit Marquez's ability to do damage with his jabs. Marquez is fast, but despite being bigger, Mayweather is still probably faster. To make matters worse, reports have leaked out of Marquez's camp that he hasn't looked as fast usual with the added weight. Now, I tend to agree with Bad Left Hook in the link I gave in my last post that weight is generally an overstated factor, but if it is true that Marquez has slowed down at all, then I don't think he has any chance.
4) Marquez's best chance is to use his speed- This goes along with the reasoning I gave in the prior point, but I think Marquez's best chance is to use his speed, land whatever punches he can, and then retreat to prevent Mayweather from unleashing his deadly counter punch combinations. I don't think he'll be able to do this very effectively, and that's why I see this bout turning into a speed bout with a lot of running around the ring a la Mayweather-De La Hoya.
The Prediction- Mayweather by decision, 117-111. Mayweather is a huge 4-1 favorite, and I don't see this being a great fight to bet on since I think Marquez has very little chance to win, and Mayweather is such a huge favorite there's essentially no value in betting him to win straight up. I'll probably end up parlaying Mayweather with the over on the rounds just to try and get some sort of value. Sure, there's a chance Mayweather looks a bit rusty after his layoff of nearly 2 years, but he's been training for this fight for 5 months and I highly doubt rust will effect him after the first round or two, if at all. Juan Manuel Marquez is an excellent, courageous fighter (who was robbed of victories in his fights against Pacquiao) who is ten times more likable than Mayweather, but I just think he's caught in a tough spot here. I don't like the way Marquez's strengths and weaknesses match up with Mayweather's, and I think that while Marquez will show his usual heart and determination, he just isn't big enough, tall enough, or fast enough to win this fight.
Oh, and by the way-- Marquez drinks his own urine.
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