Friday, September 18, 2009

Lock It Up: Weekend Picks

Last night? Yea, we're not going to be talking about that. Just know that I looked like that guy in the picture for about 2 hours straight last night. Let's move on to the weekend...

E. Carolina + 7.5 at N. Carolina- When you need a safety in the last two minutes to beat UConn, let's just say that I'm less than impressed with you.

North Carolina 24, E. Carolina 20

UCLA -12.5 vs. Kansas State- Bill Snyder has to be thinking right now, "I came back for this???" First, they barely hold off UMass at home, then they go on the road and lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That actually happened. And they're only getting 12.5 points at a decent UCLA team who just won at Tennessee. This one's going to get ugly.
UCLA 38, Kansas State 10

Florida -29.5 vs. Tennessee- Urban Meyer runs up the score on The Citadel; what do you think he's going to do to big mouth Lane Kiffin who called him out in the offseason?
Florida 62, Tennessee 7

Michigan State +10 at Notre Dame- Yea, I know Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week, but I think 10's too many here. Central Michigan is the best of the directional Michigans, and I'm guessing MSU might have looked past Central Michigan a bit to this game. Either way, I think the Spartans defense is good enough to keep this close.
Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 21

West Virginia +7.5 at Auburn- This line opened at 4, so the betting public has been absolutely hammering Auburn here. As for me, I'm on the record as saying I think both of these teams are pretty good, but I'm also I think the only person in the country on the West Virginia bandwagon. For as great as Pat White was, he made them very one dimensional offensively. Now, they can still run the ball well with Noel Devine, but Jarrett Brown also gives them a much better passer and someone who can get the ball to Jock Sanders out in open space. Need proof of that? Did you see Pat White over throw a wide open Ted Ginn by 15 yards last week? That happened all the time at West Virginia.

Also, look at their schedule after this game: they get a week off, then get Colorado at home on a Thursday night (who is 0-2 with losses to Colorado State and Toledo. Insert joke here), at Syracuse, vs. Marshall, vs. UConn, at South Florida, vs. Louisville, at Cinci, vs. Pitt, at Rutgers. They win this week and they're looking at cruising to 7-0 before going to South Florida; this may be the last chance to get in on West Virginia before everyone else realizes how good they are (or at least how good I think they are). This team is a real sleeper to go to the BCS title game if they get past Auburn here, and at the very least, I think this spread is much too high. Oh, and there's also the added advantage that Bill Stewart is facing a coach who definitely isn't better than him for once.

West Virginia 27, Auburn 24

California -13.5 at Minnesota- Minnesota stinks. Sure, they're 2-0, but they should've lost to Syracuse, and a 20-13 win over Air Force at home does not impress me. Meanwhile, Jahvid Best has been eating babies and absolutely dismantling Maryland and Eastern Washington-- I know, they aren't exactly USC and Florida, but this team has looked ridiculous. Plus, I don't think Minnesota is much of a step up from those two anyway.

California 45, Minnesota 17

Texas -17.5 vs. Texas Tech- You think Texas might be up for this game after what Tech did to them last year? Also, historically Mike Leach's teams can compete against the big boys in Lubbock, but when they go on the road, they get stomped (for a recent example of this, see what happened to them at Oklahoma last year, or even what happened against Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl). And to make things worse, Tech doesn't have half the talent they had last year. I think this one gets ugly early and Texas never takes its foot off the gas

Texas 49, Texas Tech 21.

(Update: somehow forgot to include these two games:)
Oregon State +1
vs. Cincinnati- Cinci has looked impressive so far, completely eviscerating Rutgers and, for what it's worth (probably not much) SE Missouri State, while Oregon State barely held on at UNLV last week. Tony Pike has looked mighty impressive so far, but I want to see Cinci's d-- which lost a lot of talent from last year-- perform against a real offense. Sean Canfield will easily be the best QB they've seen so far this year, and Quiz and James Rodgers will be the best skill position players they've seen too. This should be one of the best games of the weekend, and I'll take Oregon State with the home field advantage.
Oregon State 28, Cincinnati 24

Virginia Tech -5 vs. Nebraska- This line opened curiously low at 2.5, and I'm not ready to take Nebraska and an inexperienced QB on the road against perennial defensive powerhouse Virginia Tech. Tyrod Taylor hasn't really shown any improvement as a QB so far this year, but freshmen RBs Ryan Williams and David Wilson have shown that their running game didn't die with the injury to Darren Evans. Remember, Taylor was also the QB for Tech last year when they dropped 35 on the Huskers in Lincoln. I don't think Nebraska can score enough to keep this one close.

Virginia Tech 30, Nebraska 17


NFL PICKS:
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona, simply because it's a 1 o'clock game, and Arizona sucks, and Dallas -3 vs. NY Giants, because I don't think the Giants are that good.

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