Thursday, September 10, 2009

The Problem with the Hornets

I can't believe how bad your teammates are either, Chris.

This is something that's been knawing at me for a while, and the link I gave to Sham earlier today had a quote that really underscored what I've felt about the Hornets for a while:

"Peja is still going, although he's not far away from being Postdrag. He owes it all to the pretty tremendous contract that Jeff Bower gave him, one which calls for two more years and $27.6 million for a player with a PER of 12.5 last year. Nice. Their other shocking contract of that offseason - Bobby Jackson - has finally expired, but not before the Hornets traded it for a longer one (Mike James, later Antonio Daniels) just to get a two month Bonzi Wells cameo. They made a "go for it" trade, missed by miles, and are still suffering from the repercussions, having to dump players to avoid the tax. Nasty. It often escapes mention quite how bad Jeff Bower has been in New Orleans. He wasn't even the one who drafted Chris Paul."

When New Orleans got Chris Paul and realized how good he was, they went with what I call the "casual fan" team building model. What is that you ask? It's buying into stupid beliefs that casual fans spout off like "great point guards make everyone around them better," and trying to build their team by just filling in with complementary pieces. I say that is a stupid belief because great PG's don't make everyone around them better; go to basketball-reference or 82games.com and look at the stats for players before they play with a great PG, when they play with one, and after they play with one. Chris Paul has not made James Posey or Mo Pete or Peja or Rasual Butler any better playing with him. Steve Nash did not magically morph Quentin Richardson or Raja Bell or Eddie House or James Jones into better players. People always trot out Marion playing with Nash as the poster child for this theory, but you could even argue that Nash did not make him better considering Marion was pretty damn good before Nash ever got to Phoenix. Sure, I understand that complementary players are needed in team building, but teams like Phoenix and New Orleans thought they could get by without any other playmakers on the perimeter because they had such great PG's, and it hasn't worked (although it almost did for Phoenix, but it also helps when you have Amare and Marion in their primes in the frontcourt, along with one of the best coaches in the league).

This is what New Orleans did; they dumped huge money on an aging and decomposing Peja. The supposed reasoning? "Well, all he'll have to do is stand there and wet open threes on Paul's drive and kicks." They threw the MLE at Mo Pete under the similar thinking of "well, with Chris Paul on board, we don't need a 2 guard who can create, but just one who can stay out of the way, play defense, and hit open jumpers." That same line of reasoning led them to later dump the MLE on an aging James Posey. Unless you have two great players in the front court (like Phoenix when they had Marion and Amare to go with Nash) who can score, you need wing players around your stud PG that can do more than just hit stand still jumpers and play defense.

This even applies to stars that aren't PG's; look at the Cavs and LeBron. For years their team building strategy was to just surround him with guys who can bang open jumpers and do nothing else; guys like Damon Jones, Daniel Gibson, and Donyell Marshall. They were always good (because LeBron was so incredible, and they played really good D), but they were always dreadful on offense and a step short of being a true contender. What happens last year? They go out and get two guards (Mo Williams and Delonte West) that can not only hit that open jumper, but they can also create a little bit of offense for themselves and others. All of a sudden, their offense is great, they win 66 games, and they lose in the conference finals to a Magic team that Cleveland didn't match up well with and because Orlando played out of their minds. Even LeBron needs someone else who can create.

Why has this struck such a nerve with me? Well for starters, I hate to see one of the best PG's of all time in a bad situation. Chris Paul has had two of the best statistical seasons ever for a PG in the past two years, and sadly it looks like New Orleans isn't going anywhere fast because of the black holes they have at the 2 and 3. And secondly, as a Bulls fan, this is very similar to the defense the Bulls and many of their fans have made for letting Ben Gordon go; "well, he was expendable because we have Rose, and he's our creator." Where is it written in stone that you can only have one creator on the perimeter? I understand the need for team balance, but why do all of a sudden people think players like Nash and Deron Williams and Rose and Paul can just do it all on their own on the perimeter? Why have more teams not modeled themselves after the Spurs? Sure, they have one of the greatest PF's of all time, but they also have two damned good guards who can both create for themselves, create for others, and hit jumpshots. When Ginobili was out last year, no one seemed to think that some complementary player could fill in his role because they had Parker and he was their creator and they had Duncan and he was their big. Yet, for Paul, Nash, Kidd, Rose, etc. it's a different standard.

So hang in there CP3; there are those of us out there who know that you're great, who know that you can't do it all, and who know that your GM sucks. And so help me God, if the Bulls start dumping MLE contracts on average swingmen because "Derrick Rose is our creator"...

4 comments:

  1. Pretty good post. I like the idea that you're trying to run with here, the idea of the elite point guard and the theory that he can carry a team of jump shooters.

    I'd have to disagree with you on your assessment of Bower however. Let's start with Peja. Peja wasn't brought in as a guy who would just stand around and wait for Paul to pass him the ball. Can he do that? Sure. But was that his game? Go back and check out how dope Peja was just three seasons ago. The Hornets signed him as a 28-year-old. I mean, he's only 31. Were injuries a concern? Yes, but they also wanted a guy who could shoot lights out and they knew the risk they were taking. He was the best shooter in the league for six or seven years running (no offense Ray Ray). I guess you don't remember the back-to-back-to-back seasons of 48 percent shooting, or him averaging 24 a game for second best in the league. Dude was wicked good. Injuries have pretty much derailed his career. Is it no surprise then, when he was healthy two seasons ago, and played in 77 games and shot 44 percent, that the Hornets won 56 games, took the Spurs to seven in the second round, and had CP3, this close, to an MVP?

    Look, I'm not in love with some of Bower's moves, the James Posey signing being the worst, but it's easy to complain a year after everything went as bad as it possibly could go. Don't Monday Morning Quarterback. Remember, Mo Pete used to be a 15-17 point scorer. He got hurt last year after averaging 77.5 games for his career, including four straight seasons of 82 games.

    Julian Wright was highly touted out of college, who has not been given consistent minutes to blossom. Tyson Chandler was a first round pick. Speaking of Chandler, Bower did a good job of flipping him for a center who can score on his own in the low post. While I think last year's expectations were far overblown for a team I believed overachieved in 07-08, to say that the Bugs have no talent outside of Chris Paul is simply incorrect.

    And look at this year's draft picks, Collison and Thornton. Collison is an NBA-ready backup and Thornton is a scorer, pure and simple. With the draft positions Bower had, he didn't reach for a big that was still several years away and instead went for players that would help sew up weaknesses in the lineup.

    If healthy, it's within the very realistic realm of possibility that this team will be a 50 to 55 win squad.

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  2. You make fair points on the Peja thing, although I remember a lot of people thinking at the time of his signing that the deal was too long and for too much money. As for Mo Pete, a lot of people don't realize that he was already 30 when they gave him that contract, and he wasn't exactly good the season before they signed him. I agree with you that Julian Wright has some talent, but at some point the GM has to make sure that his freaking coach plays the guy, especially when luminaries like Sean Marks and Melvin Ely are playing ahead of him. Tell Scott to play Wright or find a new job.

    I will disagree with you on his draft picks this year though Way to use your first rounder on a backup point who will play at most, 10 minutes a night, when you have gaping holes on the rest of your roster. Collison could end up being a nice player, but I see no way he can play at the same time as Paul. Players I would've taken ahead of Collison if I were the Hornets GM-- Toney Douglas, Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, DeJuan Blair, Jodie Meeks, Danny Green. I'm not going to rip the Thornton selection since there weren't many, if any, better choices out there at 43, but I highly doubt he makes any sort of impact in the league.

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  3. Yeah, the Mo Pete signing was sort of a head scratcher, and there were concerns about the length of Peja's contract, but they thought they had a three year window before Peja started to tail off. Last season wasted that third year.

    As for Wright, Shinn has mandated that the youngins get to play this season, so it's on Scott to follow through, meaning that Thornton might get some burn as well. Thornton was the shooting guard that the Bugs had targeted and even toyed with the notion of drafting him with the 21st pick just to ensure they got him. So, they got the SG they wanted.

    I know you're down on the Collison pick, but I think it's a brilliant selection. Instead of overpaying for an aging backup point guard, the Bugs got a brand new one who has veteran swagger despite never playing in the Association before. Collison has three final four appearances (including one in the championship game) over his four collegiate years. The Bugs have looked great, obviously, when CP3 is running the show, but when he went to the bench, Byron Scott had to turn to Antonio Daniels, Devin Brown, and Mike James...and that didn't go over so well.

    Not only will Collison bring much needed stability to the second unit, he'll also be invaluable as a minutes eater helping to reduce Paul's overall playing time and thus keeping him fresher for the playoffs. The one thing the second unit has been pretty good at the past two years (thanks to Julian) is defense. Collison brings that in spades and showed the ability to score during summer league (18.5 ppg) as well.

    Pendergraph has upside, but he's a couple years away...something Paul wouldn't be too happy about. Cunningham and Blair are undersized and Blair has those very, very questionable knees. After the whole Chandler fiasco, pretty sure the Bugs didn't want to go through the worry of a talented, but injury-prone big.

    Again, I agree with your overall assessment that GMs seem to be relying too heavily on a star point guard, but the Bugs, with the financial restrictions they have on them being a small market team, have done pretty well for themselves.

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  4. Completely agree with everything. Jeff Bower has been terrible. It angers me. Paul's talent shouldnt be wasted like this.

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